This is the fourth in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.
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Day Four: Western Athletic Conference
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The WAC perennially puts up a BCS contender and this season will be no different. Two years ago it was Boise’s magical undefeated run. Last season it was Hawai’i’s cupcake induced 12-0 stretch. In 2008 Fresno State looks to take the reins as the WAC’s top dog (pun totally intended) while Boise and Nevada will nip at their heels. The Warriors will try to retain their dominance from a year ago but will find it difficult. This is a conference of haves and have-nots, with the top teams likely to perform very well and the bottom teams likely to be national cellar-dwellers.
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1) Fresno State Bulldogs (10-2, 7-1)
This team will surely turn some heads this year and, with some luck, could knock on the BCS’s door come January. They return 10 starters from an offense that put up 419 yards and 33 points per game in 2007. Tom Brandstater is the best quarterback in the league and has three legitimate NFL prospects at wide receiver. Six starters return to the defense and the secondary, which grabbed only three interceptions last year, must improve.
Worst-case scenario – Three early non-conference games will set the stage for Fresno. Losing these could drop them as far as 7-5.
Best-case scenario – It is unlikely, but the Bulldogs could run the table.
Predictions – Fresno should take 2 out of 3 from Rutgers, Wisconsin, and UCLA. The last game of the season @Boise State could decide the WAC champion.
Wins: @Rutgers, @Toledo, @UCLA, Hawaii, Idaho, @Utah State, @Louisiana Tech, Nevada, New Mexico State, @San Jose State – Losses: Wisconsin, @Boise State
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2) Boise State Broncos (9-3, 6-2)
Boise should again be in the running for a conference championship into the last weekend of the season. RB Ian Johnson returns for his senior season, though QB Tyler Tharp is gone. The only question mark on offense is the line, which lost 4 starters and lacks depth. On defense 7 starters return and they should possess a good pass rush but a weak rush defense. As far as WAC standards are concerned, however, this defense is well above average.
Worst-case scenario – Losses at home to Hawai’i and Fresno could drop them to 7-5.
Best-case scenario – If the Broncos run the table in house they could go 11-1.
Predictions – This team isn’t perfect so they will lose a few, but look for them to put some pressure on Fresno.
Wins: Idaho State, Bowling Green, Louisiana Tech, @Southern Miss, Hawai’i @San Jose State, Utah State, @Idaho, Fresno State – Losses: @Oregon, @New Mexico State, @Nevada
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3) Nevada Wolfpack (8-4, 6-2)
The Wolfpack have a problem a lot of teams would like to have. They have two very good quarterbacks who could probably start for any other team in the league. Nick Graziano, last year’s opening day starter, will have to compete with Colin Kaepernik, the man who filled in for Graziano when he was injured. Whoever wins the job will be handing off to the WAC’s #1 RB Luke Lippincort. Nevada loses a number of players from the nation’s 11th best defense in 2007 and will rely on some of its 15 defensive additions to step in and fill the holes.
Worst-case scenario – Nevada has to beat UNLV and some of the top teams in the conference to avoid landing at 6-6.
Best-case scenario – An upset of Missouri or Texas Tech would give the Wolfpack 9 wins.
Predictions – Nevada lost seven games in 2007, but all four of their conference losses came by seven points or fewer. They will be much improved this season.
Wins: Grambling State, @UNLV, @Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, @Hawai’i, San Jose State, Boise State – Losses: Texas Tech, @Missouri, @Fresno State, @Louisiana Tech
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4) Hawai’i Warriors (6-7, 5-3)
Hawai’i won’t break the BCS again this season. I guarantee it. Gone is record-setting QB Colt Brennan. Gone is head coach June Jones. Gone are the team’s top four receivers. The run-and-shoot is staying. But without an incumbent quarterback there will be a lot more running and a lot less shooting. On defense, LB Solomon Elimimian, who tallied 145 tackles in 2007, will lead a corps that should be able to keep the team in games.
Worst-case scenario – Hawai’i has to be careful not to drop a couple of winnable road games against Utah State and New Mexico State to fall to 4-9.
Best-case scenario – If the Warriors can pick up a non-conference upset, they could slide above .500.
Predictions – A quirk in the schedule, which gives Hawai’i 13 games, will cost them a bowl bid.
Wins: Weber State, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, @Utah State, @New Mexico State, Idaho – Losses: @Florida, @Oregon State, @Fresno State, @Boise State, Nevada, Washington State, Cincinnati
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5) New Mexico State Aggies (6-6, 4-4)
Senior quarterback Chase Holbrook and senior wide receiver Chirs Wilkins return to try to do what they couldn’t last season: put up a ton of points. A new defensive scheme, the 3-5-3, has been implemented in an attempt to cover their weaknesses in the secondary and on the line.
Worst-case scenario – The Aggies have to play significantly better than they did last season or they’ll finish 4-8…again.
Best-case scenario – They will have to beat the better teams in the conference if they want to best .500.
Predictions – This is not yet the breakthrough season for the Aggies, though 6-6 is a marked improvement from their 0-12 2005 campaign.
Wins: Nicholls State, @UTEP, San Jose State, Boise State, Louisiana Tech, @Utah State – Losses: @Nebraska, New Mexico, @Nevada, @Idaho, Hawai’i, @Fresno State
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6) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-6, 4-4)
RB Patrick Johnson will have an excellent line behind which he can run this season. The Bulldogs have still not found a starting quarterback, though, so Johnson will have to carry a heavy load. The defense improved greatly from 2006 to 2007, dropping 62 yds/gm from its average and giving up 32 points per game compared to 43 points two years ago. The back seven provide the strength for this squad.
Worst-case scenario – Tech has to beat the lesser teams in the WAC. If they don’t, they’ll struggle to win 5.
Best-case sceneario – A couple of home upsets against New Mexico and Hawai’i would push them to 8-4.
Predictions – This is an average team that will finish with an average record.
Wins: Southeastern Louisiana, Idaho, @Army, @San Jose State, Utah State, Nevada – Losses: Mississippi State, @Kansas, @Boise State, @Hawai’i, Fresno State, @New Mexico State
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7) San Jose State Spartans (4-8, 2-6)
The Spartans need to establish a running game this season if they want to have any chance for success. While Kevin Jarovich leads a loaded group of receivers, the running backs’ abysmal 2.6 yds/carry last season meant that teams could key on the passing game. The defense is in transition having lost two all-conference linebackers and their best defensive back. PAC-10 transfers DE Jeff Schweiger (USC) and CB Coye Francis (Oregon State) should step in and contribute immediately.
Worst-case scenario – The Spartans’ only conference wins will come against Idaho and Utah State. If they lose those they’ll go winless in the conference.
Best-case scenario – They might be able to pull off home wins against Louisiana Tech and Boise State but 6-6 will be out of their reach.
Predictions – Two wins in-conference and two wins out will be all they’ll get.
Wins: UC-Davis, San Diego State, Utah State, @Idaho – Losses: @Nebraska, @Stanford, @Hawai’i, @New Mexico State, Boise State, Louisiana Tech, @Nevada, Fresno State
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8 ) Idaho Vandals (2-10, 1-7)
What can you expect from a 1-11 team that returns 18 starters? Normally returning a lot of players is a good thing but what if they were lousy the first time around? Sophomore RB Deonte Jackson (1175 yds in 2007) is the one bright spot on this team. The defense gave up 37 pts/gm last season and doesn’t look to improve much because it lost all of its linebackers in the off-season.
Worst-case scenario – They’ll beat Idaho State but that could be it.
Best-case scenario – They might be able to pick up two conference wins but even that is pushing it.
Predictions – The Vandals will sneak a conference home win to go along with Idaho State and finish 2-10.
Wins: Idaho State, New Mexico State – Losses: @Arizona, Western Michigan, @Utah State, @San Diego State, Nevada, @Fresno State, @Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Boise State, @Hawai’i
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9) Utah State Aggies (1-11, 1-7)
This team is bad. They have no quarterback since projected starter Jase McCormick left the team. They have no secondary and no offensive playmakers. They return all 11 defensive starters plus some depth but, given that it was the worst defense in the WAC, that won’t help.
Worst-case scenario – 0-12. It’s more likely than you might think.
Best-case scenario – Maybe they can pick up a home win against the other Aggies but that is a big maybe.
Predictions – It will be a long season.
Wins: Idaho – Losses: @UNLV, @Oregon, Utah, BYU, @San Jose State, @Nevada, Fresno State, Hawai’i, @Boise State, @Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State
Sunday: MWC
Monday: Independents and Big East
