This is the fifth in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.
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Day Five: Mountain West Conference
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The MWC looks to be fielding a solid group of competitive teams. More than half of the teams will will finish above .500 and three could reasonably win ten games. BYU is looking to crack the BCS while Utah and TCU will try their best to make sure that doesn’t happen. The bottom half of the conference is weak, though it should be significantly improved over last season.
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1) BYU Cougars (11-1, 7-1)
The chic pick among non-BCS schools to crash the BCS this year is BYU, and for good reason. The Cougars return 9 offensive starters to a group that put up 30 pts/gm in 2007. Leading the way is Heisman candidate Max Hall (3900 yds, 26 TDs). Running the ball will be Harvey Unga, who last year put up over 1300 yards and 13 TDs. More than half of the offense could make its way onto the all-conference roster. On defense, only 3 starters return, though all 3 could make the All-MWC team.
Worst-case scenario – Anything other than an 8-0 conference record would be a disappointment. There are four possible stumbling blocks. A home game against UCLA and road games with Washington, TCU, and Utah. Losing all of these would make for a dismal 8-4 season.
Best-case scenario – They run the table and earn a BCS bid.
Predictions – The two tough conference road games will test BYU and probably break them once.
Wins: Northern Iowa, @Washington, UCLA, Wyoming, @Utah State, New Mexico, @TCU, UNLV, @Colorado State, San Diego State, @Air Force – Losses: @Utah
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2) Utah Utes (10-2, 6-2)
If BYU is #1 in the MWC, then Utah is #1b. All of the skill players are returning from a 9-win season including RB Darrell Mack, who averaged more than 100 yards per game last year. Additionally, the best secondary in the country is returning 4 of its 5 starters.
Worst-case scenario – @Michigan, @Air Force, TCU, and BYU will all be tough wins. Losses would drop them to 8-4.
Best-case scenario – I don’t think the Utes can run the table, but 11-1 and a conference title are both possible.
Predictions – I’m not sure if beating Michigan is an upset, but it will happen.
Wins: @Michigan, UNLV, @Utah State, Weber State, Oregon State, @Wyoming, Colorado State, @New Mexico, @San Diego State, BYU – Losses: @Air Force, TCU
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3) TCU Horned Frogs (9-3, 6-2)
TCU has a lot of question marks on the offense, not the least of which is figuring out how to replace four starters on the offensive line. Whoever ends up starting there will be have to step up big time. In order for TCU to have success this season the defense is going to have to carry the load. Luckily, this was the 15th ranked defense in the nation last season and led the country in sacks.
Worst-case scenario – TCU will have to pull off some upsets to get to 9-3. If they don’t they could fall to 7-5.
Best-case scenario – 10-2 if they lose to Utah or BYU (not both) and run the table in the rest of their conference schedule.
Predictions – They will take one game against the top two teams but will likely drop one against the rest of the conference. A weak non-conference schedule (outside of Oklahoma) will help them get to nine wins.
Wins: Stephen F. Austin, Stanford, @SMU, San Diego State, @Colorado State, Wyoming, @UNLV, @Utah, Air Force – Losses: @New Mexico, @Oklahoma, BYU
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4) New Mexico Lobos (6-6, 4-4)
The Lobos made a stunning run to 9-4 last season, mostly thanks to a 4-1 record against a weak non-conference schedule. This year’s slate is significantly more difficult with home games against Texas A&M and Arizona and a road trip to Tulsa. If they want to hit nine wins again, they will have to play much better that they did a year ago. QB Donovan Porterie should be solid entering his third season but he will be missing two 1,000 yard receivers thank to graduation. The secondary is the highlight of the defense with CB Deandre Wright a favorite to win MWC DPOY honors. The problem with the defense is that, while the scheme is great, the players are not. And with potentially potent but inconsistent offenses (namely Texas A&M and Arizona) on the schedule the defense will need to be better than it was last year.
Worst-case scenario – If the Lobos start out slowly they could be 0-4 before they know it. Combined with a 4-4 conference record they could finish 5-7.
Best-case scenario – If New Mexico can sweep its non-conference schedule and pick up an extra conference win they could reach 9-3.
Predictions – It’ll be an up and down season as the Lobos will fail to sustain a streak (winning or losing) of longer than two games.
Wins: TCU, Texas A&M, @New Mexico State, Wyoming, San Diego State, @UNLV – Losses: Arizona, @Tulsa, @BYU, @Air Force, Utah, @Colorado State
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5) Air Force Falcons (7-5, 3-5)
No team in the country has more personnel to replace than Air Force. Only three offensive starters return and the two best players the team has seen in years, Shaun Carney and Chad Hall, have graduated. Gone are the team’s top 6 rushers, its top 2 receivers, and its four-year starting quarterback. On defense, only six starters return and the new faces among the back eight will have to step up quickly.
Worst-case scenario – The schedule makes it really difficult for the Falcons to win fewer than six games.
Best-case scenario – Air Force might be able to go .500 in the MWC, which would give them eight wins.
Predictions – So with so much to replace how will they still win seven games? One word: schedule. They’ve padded their schedule with Army, Navy, Houston, and Southern Utah, which should easily make them 4-0 outside of the MWC.
Wins: Southern Utah, @Houston, Utah, Navy, New Mexico, @Army, Colorado State – Losses: @Wyoming, @San Diego State, @UNLV, BYU, @TCU
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6) Wyoming Cowboys (6-6, 3-5)
2007 was a disappointing season for the Cowboys, who started with a win against Virginia but couldn’t translate their non-conference success (3-1) into conference wins (2-6). The Cowboys should improve in 2008, but they will not yet be competitive in their conference. 15 starters return from a year ago, the best of which is DE John Fletcher, who had 10.5 sacks last year. The offense will struggle this year. In 2007 they finished 2nd-to-last in the MWC in rushing and the passing attack will be weaker this season since they have lost their best receivers.
Worst-case scenario – 3-1 outside of the MWC is a given but the Cowboys will have to be careful not to drop home games with San Diego State and Colorado State to wind up 4-8.
Best-case scenario – They’ll have to win on the road if they want to move up with games against BYU, TCU, New Mexico, and UNL all away from home.
Predictions – The non-conference schedule is easy enough that they should start 4-1. The back half will be rough, though.
Wins: Ohio, Air Force, North Dakota State, Bowling Green, San Diego State, Colorado State – Losses: @BYU, @New Mexico, Utah, @TCU, @Tennessee, @UNLV
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7) Colorado State Rams (5-7, 3-5)
The Rams have really struggled over the last few years with four wins or fewer in three out of their last four seasons. They will likely continue to struggle in 2008. They have finally figured out their offensive scheme, though. With two good running backs who combined for 1650 yards last season, look for them to pound away at opposing defenses all year long. The offensive line is young, however, and could cause the running game to struggle early. On defense, all three starting linebackers return and they will be needed, as they’re going to have to make up a dearth of experience in the secondary, where the cornerbacks have none.
Worst-case scenario – They could struggle with Houston and New Mexico at home and go 3-9.
Best-case scenario – The Rams would have to win on the road against Wyoming or San Diego State to hit .500.
Predictions – Colorado State needs another year or two to develop before they get to bowl eligibility.
Wins: Sacramento State, Houston, UNLV, @San Diego State, New Mexico – Losses: Colorado, @Cal, TCU, @Utah, BYU, @Air Force, @Wyoming
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8 ) San Diego State Aztecs (4-8, 2-6)
The Aztecs are going to benefit from a soft non-conference schedule but will still only get two wins from that. An awful offensive line loses three starters who will most likely be replaced by freshmen. Also gone is QB Kevin O’Connell, who pretty much was the entire offense for SDSU. In losing O’Connell, the Aztecs lose their leading passer (3063 yards), their leading rusher (408 yards), and their leading offensive scorer (O’Connell accounted for 26 of their 35 offensive touchdowns). While the offense was bad last year—the quarterback aside—the defense was atrocious, giving up almost 500 yds/gm to finish 115th in the nation. 9 starters return from that group, which could be good if they drastically improve, or bad if they don’t.
Worst-case scenario – The non-conference schedule is pretty weak, but dropping a home game with Idaho would put the Aztecs at 3-9.
Best-case scenario – A road game with San Jose State and a home date with Colorado State are possible victories, but 5-7 is as good as it gets.
Predictions – The only reason the Aztecs will win four games is because of the favorable schedule. This is not even remotely close to a decent team.
Wins: Cal Poly, Idaho, Air Force, UNLV – Losses: @Notre Dame, @San Jose State, @TCU, @New Mexico, Colorado State, @Wyoming, @BYU, Utah
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9) UNLV Rebels (3-9, 2-6)
UNLV played worse than their talent deserved last season. That’s not to say they were a .500 team, but they certainly should have won more than two games. The offense was not great last season, but they should improve, returning nine starters. The only question mark is at quarterback where four men are competing for the starting role. The defense needs work. In 2007 they were completely incapable of getting into the backfield, finishing 117th in the nation in tackles for a loss.
Worst-case scenario – They shouldn’t lose to Utah State, but every other game will be a struggle. 1-11.
Best-case scenario – Frankly, 3-9 might be generous.
Predictions – It’ll be a rough year for the Rebels, who will struggle to get three wins.
Wins: Utah State, Air Force, Wyoming – Losses: @Utah, @Arizona State, Iowa State, Nevada, @Colorado State, @BYU, TCU, New Mexico, San Diego State
