This is the sixth in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.
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Day Six: The Independents
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There isn’t much to say about these teams as a group, so let’s just get into it.
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1) Navy Midshipmen (7-5)
The more things change, the more they stay the same; at least in Annapolis. Head coach Paul Johnson is gone, but his triple option (crucial in Navy’s return to competitiveness) remains. With third-year starter Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada returning at quarterback to lead the way the Midshipmen will be looking to put up another 4,000+ rushing yards again. If Navy wants to get back to a bowl game, however, their defense will have to step up. They gave up more than 30 points in nine games last season and more than 40 points in seven games. The defense will improve and the success or failure of the Midshipmen will depend on how much improvement the back 8 makes.
Worst-case scenario – The schedule isn’t terribly difficult with four games against the MAC and Conference USA. Then again, this is a team that gave up 34 points to Ball State, 59 points to Delaware and 62 points to North Texas last season. If the defense falters, they will drop some of those winnable games again and fall to 4-8.
Best-case scenario – Air Force, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame could be winnable games, but I doubt it. 8-4 is a reach.
Predictions – The running game will be great, the defense will improve, and they won’t give up 36 pts/gm again. Chalk up another winning season for Navy.
Wins: Towson, @Ball State, @Duke, SMU, Temple, @Northern Illinois, Army – Losses: Rutgers, @Wake Forest, @Air Force, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
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2) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-6)
2007 was abysmal for the Fighting Irish. A 1-9 start led to a 3-9 finish and at no point did this feel like a quality football team. The offensive line was to blame for many of the offense’s problems, allowing an NCAA record 58 sacks. As Dennis Dodd puts it, “the good for 2008: Three starters return from one of the most inexperienced lines in recent Notre Dame history. The bad: Three starters return from one of the most inexperienced lines in recent history.” The line was also the bulk of the reason for the abysmal 2.1 yds/carry by the Irish rushers. On the defensive side of the ball, potential Defensive POY Brian Smith (a MLB who can play at DE or safety) is heading up a defense that will be asked to blitz much more heavily in order to put pressure on the other teams and force more turnovers. The talent isn’t there for this team to return to the BCS ranks, but the schedule is very favorable.
Worst-case scenario – It is so difficult to predict what this team will do. Since they play a lot of BCS conference schools it is possible they will lose many more games than I have predicted. A repeat 3-9 season is unlikely, but possible, and could put Weis’s job in jeopardy.
Best-case scenario – Home games against Michigan and Pitt are winnable, while they could put a scare into North Carolina as well. 8-4 is possible.
Predictions – An up and down year for the Irish will see them improve behind the arm of Jimmy Clausen, but they won’t be returning to national power status any time soon.
Wins: San Diego State, Purdue, Stanford, @Washington, Navy, Syracuse – Losses: Michigan, @Michigan State, @North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Boston College, @USC
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3) Army Black Knights (2-10)
In the past six years Army has beaten exactly one BCS conference school, Baylor in 2006 (the Cincinnati and USF wins in 2004 don’t count because they were CUSA teams at the time). Over the last 11 years, the Black Knights have won exactly 21 games against D-1A schools; not an impressive statistic. But it seems that Army has found the cure to its winning woes: schedule terrible teams. Last year’s slate wasn’t exactly intimidating, with only four BCS schools leading to a 4-8 record. It seems that Army hopes to up its record to .500 by removing two of those tough games and scheduling patsies instead. The Knights are also hoping to improve their actual team, though whether or not that is possible is debatable. They’ve abandoned the pass-heavy and balanced attacks and are trying to get back to a run-based team, one that will likely see a lot of option and wishbone sets. They’ll have to greatly improve on their 87.5 rush yds/gm, though. And quarterback Carson Williams will likely lose playing time if the coaches want to run the option exclusively. The defense lacks depth, but the middle defenders (MLB and DTs) will be solid and will need to generate a strong pass rush in order to take the pressure off of a young secondary.
Worst-case scenario – With this schedule 2-10, while possible, would be a disaster.
Best-case scenario – Army can get to 6-6, and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising given the competition.
Predictions – I think this team is in for a rude awakening as, even against a schedule full of cupcakes, they will struggle mightily in implementing their new defensive scheme.
Wins: New Hampshire, Eastern Michigan – Losses: Temple, Akron, @Texas A&M, @Tulane, @Buffalo, Louisiana Tech, Air Force, @Rice, @Rutgers, Navy
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4) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-10)
WKU is in its final transition year before entering full FBS status. Unfortunately, this will not be a banner year for the Hilltoppers as they will most likely see their run of 12 consecutive winning seasons come to a crashing halt. Last year they cruised to a seven win season based on wins over such vaunted powerhouses as Morehead State, Chattanooga, North Carolina Central, Indiana State, Eastern Kentucky, and West Virginia Tech (which isn’t even an NCAA team). This year, however, they have to play an FBS-caliber schedule; though, given the team’s Sun Belt ties, half of their games will be against that low-caliber conference. Add in two FCS gimmes and four pay-to-play road games and WKU has a pair of easy wins and 10 games they will probably lose.
Worst-case scenario – They’re not going to lose to Murray State or Eastern Kentucky, so 2-10 is the worst-case.
Best-case scenario – Maybe they can steal a game against FIU or North Texas. 4-8.
Predictions – This team is not good, and this year’s schedule will show it.
Wins: @Eastern Kentucky, Murray State – Losses: @Indiana, @Alabama, @Kentucky, @Virginia Tech, Ball State, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, @Troy, Middle Tennessee, @FIU
