As usual, real life intervenes when we least expect it.  I likely won’t have anything up for the next few days as I head home to take care of some family stuff.  With any luck I’ll be able to finish the season previews by mid-week (though they will all be horribly blown after the first week I’m sure).  So I encourage everyone to sit back, relax, and enjoy a long weekend of college football.

This is the eighth in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.

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Day Eight: Atlantic Coast Conference

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The ACC has had a bit of a tough run lately. Their teams have put up multiple double-digit win seasons but haven’t been able to put a team in the BCS championship game since Florida State’s three-year run from 1998-2000. Bringing in Virginia Tech and Miami (teams who made the championship game three times while in the Big East) was supposed to provide some depth in the conference, but they have been unable to field a truly dominant title contender. This year could be different. The ACC starts the season with two teams with legitimate title hopes and teams who have struggled in recent years (Wake Forest and North Carolina) are beginning to show signs of life and provide a deeper conference to give those top teams more credibility. Also, I just noticed this, but how lame are the ACC’s division names? Atlantic and Coastal? They couldn’t have just gone with North and South? What’s the difference between the Atlantic and the Coast? Anyway…

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Atlantic Division

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1) Clemson Tigers (9-3, 6-2)

Clemson has the best backfield in the conference and it could be the best in the country. The Combination of QB Cullen Harper and RBs James Davis and CJ Spiller last year combined for almost 3,000 yards passing, over 1,800 yards rushing, and 43 touchdowns. With all three returning, it’s impossible to favor anyone else over Clemson in this division. The offensive line needs some work, having lost four starters, but the offense that managed to put up 38+ points six times in 2007 will not struggle at all. On defense, the biggest name is incoming Freshman DaQuan Bowers. He will be starting from day one and will provide a great pass rush off the end of the line. The secondary returns all four starters plus a lot of depth, so it will be difficult for teams to air it out against the Tigers in 2008.

Worst-case scenario – The Tigers have shown a lot of inconsistency in recent years. Last year they started out 4-2 before dropping their next two. In 2006, they started out 7-1 before dropping 4 out of their last 5. If they drop a few road games this season 8-4 is possible.

Best-case scenario – A win against the Crimson Tide to open the season could give them enough momentum to run the table and finish 12-0 with a ticket to Miami.

Predictions – Yes, I’m an Alabama fan. Yes, I’m picking Alabama to beat Clemson. I don’t know if that’s going to happen, but that’s my gut feeling. Throw in a couple of road conference losses and you get to 9-3, which will be a disappointment for this team.

Wins: The Citadel, NC State, South Carolina State, Maryland, Georgia Tech, @Boston College, @Florida State, Duke, South Carolina – Losses: Alabama, @Wake Forest, @Virginia

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2) Boston College Eagles (9-3, 5-3)

Replacing Matt Ryan’s 4500 passing yards and 31 touchdowns will be no easy feat. The new Atlanta Falcons starter leaves a gaping hole in the backfield but (former) backup Chris Crane should step in nicely. He won’t be a Heisman candidate by any means, but the offense won’t suffer much. What the offense does need to worry about is its running situation. Andre Callender, who accounted for over 70% of BC’s 1389 rushing yards, is gone. At this point, his likely replacement is freshman Josh Harden who, while showing great potential, is still a freshman. While Ryan was the star of the show last year the defense put up some great numbers as well. They finished 2^nd in rush defense and 19^th in total defense. The defensive line should be great again, but the secondary needs to step up and stop opposing pass offenses.

Worst-case scenario – No road game is a guarantee here, with Wake, Florida State, and sleepers NC State and North Carolina. Losing all of those, plus the Clemson home game, would make for a dismal 7-5 year.

Best-case scenario – With their relatively easy non-conference schedule, 11-1 is possible.

Predictions – The Clemson loss will be tough to swallow. Throw in a couple road losses and the Eagles will finish 9-3 and miss out on their second straight trip to Jacksonville.

Wins: Kent State, Georgia Tech, UCF, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, @North Carolina, Notre Dame, @Wake Forest, Maryland – Losses: @NC State, Clemson, @Florida State

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3) Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4, 5-3)

Wake Forest has had quite a resurgence in the past two seasons. After winning a total of 20 games from 2002-2005, Wake has won that exact number in just the last two seasons, including an impressive 11 win campaign that culminated in an ACC title in 2006. This year will probably not be as good as the last two have been, but the Deacons should still have plenty to be happy about. The offense loses 4 starters from the offensive line, but none of them were stars and are replaceable. QB Riley Skinner will have to keep down the turnovers (12 TDs, 13 INTs) if he wants to keep the job. Last year’s defense allowed only 22 pts/gm and should be just as good this year. 9 starters return to the team that was 4^th in the nation in takeaways and the back seven will be good as ever.

Worst-case scenario – The Ole Miss game will be a tough win, so Wake will have to be better than .500 in the ACC if they want to avoid 7-5.

Best-case scenario – Home wins against Miss and BC would give the Deacons 10 wins.

Predictions – Wake should be better than last year, they just have a tougher road to get through. Army gets traded for Baylor and Ole Miss is substituted for Nebraska.

Wins: @Baylor, Navy, Clemson, @Maryland, Duke, Virginia, @NC State, Vanderbilt – Losses: Ole Miss, @Florida State, @Miami, Boston College

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4) Florida State Seminoles (7-5, 4-4)

Wow, where do we start here. The offense is mediocre. There have been suspensions galore. QB Drew Weatherford is still recovering from a spring knee injury. Receivers Greg Carr and Preston Parker have looked good so far and combined for almost 1,600 yards in 2007. The defense really fell off at the end of the year, allowing 30+ points in three of its final four games and four of the last seven. The defense should be better, if they can just last the whole season. But it will be an up and down year for the Seminoles.

Worst-case scenario – Bobby Bowden opens his final season with two perennial powerhouses in Western Carolina and Chattanooga. Actually, Florida State is one of three ACC teams who have scheduled two FCS opponents this season, which makes me mad enough to say they could finish 3-9.

Best-case scenario – Georgia Tech and NC State could be victories. 9-3.

Predictions – This team isn’t great. They’ll capitalize on a weak non-conference schedule and will be mediocre in-house.

Wins: Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Wake Forest, Colorado, @Miami, Boston College, @Maryland – Losses: @NC State, Virginia Tech, @Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida

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5) NC State Wolfpack (6-6, 4-4)

Since having their best season in 2002 NC State has been up and down. Winning seasons in 2003 and 2005 were surrounded by winning seasons in 2004, 2006, and 2007. Last year’s 5-7 team wasn’t terrible, but they just didn’t play very well. The offense was certainly less than stellar, throwing for fewer than 3,000 yards and rushing for barely more than 1,000 yards. In 2008 the rushing game should be better, but the line will likely be worse. If the Wolfpack want to have any success this year they will have to cut down on the turnovers. Last year three quarterbacks combined to throw 23 interceptions with only 14 touchdowns. That won’t cut it for any big time program. This defense needs to get its act together as well. NC State finished 11^th in the ACC in total defense last year and lost three starting linebackers. State has the schedule necessary to get to a bowl game; they just have to play better.

Worst-case scenario – If the Wolfpack can’t win their home games they could fall all the way to 3-9.

Best-case scenario – There isn’t much to be had here. Winning road games against Maryland and North Carolina could get them up to 8-4, but it’s unlikely.

Predictions – A mediocre team will finish with a mediocre record. No surprise here.

Wins: William & Mary, East Carolina, Boston College, Florida State, @Duke, Miami – Losses: @South Carolina, @Clemson, South Florida, @Maryland, Wake Forest, @North Carolina

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6) Maryland Terrapins (5-7, 2-6)

Maryland won six games last season mostly thanks to their schedule. The schedule should be just as easy this year, but the team is significantly worse. RBs Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball are gone which takes away 90% of last year’s rushing total. Throw in the fact that last year’s quarterbacks combined for fewer than 2500 yards and had 7 TDs and 9 INTs and you have a team with no real offensive options. The offensive line is massive, but with no one to block for, they could be wasted. The run defense was terrible last season and the Terrapins will be breaking in three new DBs in the secondary. Linebacker Adrian Moten is a stud, but even he can’t help this defense.

Worst-case scenario – If Maryland can’t beat North Carolina or NC State at home, they’ll fall to 3-9.

Best-case scenario – The Terrapins have road games against the top 4 teams in the conference so the only game they could pick up would be the home date with Florida State. That would get them back to .500

Predictions – This is a rough schedule, with a draw that includes games at Virginia and Virginia Tech. It’ll be a tough year.

Wins: Delaware, @Middle Tennessee, Eastern Michigan, NC State, North Carolina – Losses: Cal, @Clemson, @Virginia, Wake Forest, @Virginia Tech, Florida State, @Boston College

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Coastal Division

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1) Virginia Tech Hokies (10-2, 6-2)

Tech is the other team in the ACC with legitimate title hopes. The Hokies have been by far the best ACC team since 2004 with 42 wins in the last four years. This season the schedule is favorable for another double-digit win season. Coach Frank Beamer has made an interesting choice to go with Sean Glennon (last year’s primary starter) at quarterback and is apparently going to redshirt sophomore Tyrod Taylor. Hopefully, Brandon Ore—who put up almost 1,000 yards rushing in 2007 will take more of the load off of the overwhelmed Glennon. (ed. – Your humble, but stupid, writer forgot that Ore is now gone.) However the backfield shakes out, they will have a massive and experienced offensive line returning. The defense loses 7 All-ACC players, but Beamer has never had trouble putting together a good defense and shouldn’t struggle this year either.

Worst-case scenario – A game in Lincoln, Nebraska could trip up the Hokies early, but their toughest division games with Virginia and Georgia Tech are both at home, which means 8-4 is as bad as it will get.

Best-case scenario – I don’t think they can run the table, but 11-1 is possible.

Predictions – Tech will fall @Boston College and should drop one other game. 4-0 outside of the ACC is almost a given.

Wins: East Carolina, Furman, Georgia Tech, @North Carolina, @Nebraska, Western Kentucky, @Florida State, Maryland, Duke, Virginia – Losses: @Boston College, @Miami

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2) Virginia Cavaliers (7-5, 5-3)

Virginia had a weird season in 2007. They dropped a deuce in week one against Wyoming before running off seven straight wins. Then they ended the season by dropping three of their last five. 11 starters are gone from last year’s team including NFL 1^st round draft picks Chris Long and Brandon Albert. The offense should be fine as sophomore QB Peter Lalich takes over for Jameel Sewell. The running game will shine as Cedric Peerman—who led the ACC in rushing before being lost for the season by an October foot injury—should perform admirably, if he can stay healthy. The offensive line was weak last season, but should improve. The defense loses 21 sacks from ends Long and Jeffrey Fitzgerald and will have to find a way to replace some of the defensive line talent that allowed them to give up fewer than 18 points per game over the first 11 games last year. The linebackers ought to be able to make up for some of that loss since they are all returning and should be great.

Worst-case scenario – A tough non-conference schedule will get the Cavs off to a slow start and if they can’t recover from that they could drop below .500.

Best-conference scenario – After USC, the schedule is ripe for an eight game run, which would lead to another nine-win season.

Predictions – They just don’t have the talent to compete with Tech, but they should be the best of the rest.

Wins: Richmond, @Duke, Maryland, East Carolina, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson – Losses: USC, @UCONN, @Georgia Tech, @Wake Forest, @Virginia Tech

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3) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5, 4-4)

It’ll be a year of transition for the Jackets as new coach Paul Johnson attempts to institute the triple option. The good thing about the option is that it will be confusing for opposing defenses. The bad thing about the option is that it will be confusing for the Tech offense. RB Jonathan Dwyer should step in capably for the graduated Tashard Choice. As a freshman in 2007 Dwyer ran for 436 yards and scored 9 TDs. QB Josh Nesbitt will fit in nicely as the option QB after rushing for 339 yards in his first year. The defense is a question mark with a lot of new faces trying to fill the holes in a depleted secondary.

Worst-case scenario – Another multiple FCS-playing team won’t finish lower than 2-2 outside of the conference. If the option doesn’t fit immediately, they could fall to 5-7.

Best-case scenario – Road games against Clemson and Boston College will be killer, but 8-4 is possible.

Predictions – There are just too many questions with this new offense to predict anything higher or lower than 7-5.

Wins: Jacksonville State, Mississippi State, Duke, Gardner-Webb, Virginia, Florida State, Miami – Losses: @Boston College, @Virginia Tech, @Clemson, @North Carolina, @Georgia

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4) Miami Hurricanes (6-6, 4-4)

Kyle Wright has graduate and Kirby Freeman has transferred so Miami is going to be starting a quarterback who has never taken a snap. Exactly who that QB will be is up in the air right now. The running game should be fine as Graig Cooper and Javarris James combined for more than 1200 yards last season. The offensive line will need to step up and make some holes for them, but it could be a long year for this offense. The defense seemed to be starting out well last season but collapsed at the end of the year, giving up 40 pts/gm over the last three weeks. There is depth on this team, but it should be spotty again.

Worst-case scenario – Everything falls apart, they lose at home to North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech to finish 3-9.

Best-case scenario – They pick up a home win against Florida State hit seven wins.

Predictions – It’ll be an up and down year.

Wins: Charleston Southern, North Carolina, UCF, @Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech – Losses: @Florida, @Texas A&M, Florida State, @Virginia, @Georgia Tech, @NC State

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5) North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6, 3-5)

It has been a tough few years for the Heels, having won more than three conference games only twice in the last six years. That said, they should improve on last year’s 4-8 record if simply because they lost six games by seven points or fewer and it’s hard to be that unlucky two years in a row. The offense is awful. Outside of Duke, this has been the worst offense over the last two years scoring only 21 pts/gm last year and only 18 pts/gm in 2006. QB TJ Yates was decent last season but the Heels will have to find a back who can get more than 400 yards rushing if they want to succeed. The defense will utilize small, quick blitzers to attack, but the defense really isn’t the problem at this point. Success or failure will depend solely on the offense.

Worst-case scenario – Dropping home games to UCONN, Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame could mire the team in an 0-9 streak and lead to a disastrous 3-9 season.

Best-case scenario – They might be able to pick up a road win against Maryland, but anything better than 8-4 is a dream.

Predictions – Carolina draws its toughest games at home, but even that won’t help this mediocre team.

Wins: McNeese State, UCONN, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, NC State, @Duke – Losses: @Rutgers, Virginia Tech, @Miami, @Virginia, Boston College, @Maryland

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6) Duke Blue Devils (1-11, 0-8)

This is team is bad. I wish I could just leave it at that, but we really should revel in their putridity. Duke is 0-24 in conference play since the ACC went to a divisional format. In 2007 they were last in total offense and last in scoring offense with a whopping 18 points per game. Their running game was easily the worst of the bunch as they averaged only 64 yards per game. 10 starters return on defense; unfortunately, that defense surrendered 33 pts/gm and gave up 40+ points in half their games. Ugly.

Worst-case scenario – They won’t lose to James Madison, so 1-11 is the worst-case scenario

Best-case scenario – Maybe they can beat Northwestern: 2-10.

Predictions – Ugly. That’s the only word that describes this team. With James Madison first on tap, Duke will likely enter 2009 with an 11 game losing streak.

Wins: James Madison – Losses: Northwestern, Navy, Virginia, @Georgia Tech, Miami, @Vanderbily, @Wake Forest, NC State, @Clemson, @Virginia Tech, North Carolina

Each week I will take a look at the five teams in the country with the best national championship hopes, the five teams that are nipping at their heels, and the five teams most likely to lay an egg this season.  These lists will look at past performance as well as future possibilities.  For example, Ohio State starts as the #4 contender because I believe they will lose to USC and, thus, be kept out of the BCS title game.  If, however, they beat USC, they will immediately jump to #1 because there is really no one else on the schedule who can beat them.  For more in-depth analysis of the teams, check out the season previews.

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THE CONTENDERS

#1 – Oklahoma Sooners

#2 – Florida Gators

#3 – USC Trojans

#4 – Ohio State Buckeyes

#5 – West Virginia Mountaineers

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The Pretenders

#6 – Missouri Tigers

#7 – Georgia Bulldogs

#8 – Clemson Tigers

#9 – Auburn Tigers

#10 – Virginia Tech Hokies

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The O-fers

#1 – Florida International Panthers

#2 – Utah State Aggies

#3 – UAB Blazers

#4 – Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

#5 – North Texas Mean Green

This is the seventh in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.

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Day Seven: Big East

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Once Miami, BC, and Virginia Tech vacated to the ACC, many thought the Big East would become the bastard child of the BCS. In fact, a few years ago some BCS conference supporters suggested taking away the Big East’s automatic bowl berth. In 2004, the best record by a team not leaving the conference was 8-4. Since that year, however, the conference has risen quickly, fielding perennial contenders and would have, barring a stunning upset on the last day of last season, put its first team in the BCS championship game since the conference’s reorganization. 6 teams have won 10 or more games in the past three years, matching the ACC, which has four more total teams. There has been some criticism, though. Owing to its eight team setup, the Big East is the only BCS conference that gets to schedule five non-conference games. Additionally, the bottom of the conference had been very weak in recent years. Last year upset the status quo with UCONN, Cincinnati, and USF all putting up spectacular seasons, seemingly from nowhere. This newfound depth should greatly help the conference. If the Big East can limit the cupcakes and still keep good non-conference records, their stock should continue to rise.

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1) West Virginia Mountaineers (10-2, 6-1)

There is only choice to top this conference. The Mountaineers have not won fewer than 11 games since 2004 and have not had a losing season since 2001. They return the probable conference OPOY in quarterback Pat White. While they lost Steve Slaton to the NFL, sophomore Noel Devine, who averaged 8.6 yds/carry last season, should step in easily. The massive offensive line returns all five starters and should be among the best in the country. But while the offense is always the story at West Virginia, the defense last year was excellent. They gave up only 300 yards and 19 points per game. This year’s defense won’t be as good, with an entirely new defensive line and a lack of depth in the secondary, but they certainly will be near the top of the conference.

Worst-case scenario – Really, there is no reason for West Virginia to lose more than two games, but I suppose it could happen. 9-3 would be a disaster for this team.

Best-case scenario – They beat Auburn, finish undefeated in the conference and run the table to make their first BCS championship game.

Predictions – They won’t beat Auburn (yes I’m an SEC homer; deal with it) and they will probably drop one conference game. It will still be a good season.

Wins: Villanova, @East Carolina, @Colorado, Marshall, Rutgers, Syracuse, @Connecticut, Cincinnati, @Louisville, USF – Losses: Auburn, @Pittsburgh

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2) USF Bulls (9-3, 5-2)

The Bulls shocked everyone last season by winning a thriller at Auburn in the second week of the season. They then ran their record up to an impressive 6-0 thanks to a home win against West Virginia and a weak non-conference schedule. The #2 ranking that came with that 6-0 record did not last long, however, as they dropped their next three, en route to a 9-4 finish and an ass-whooping in the Sun Bowl. 2008 sees two big stars return. QB Matt Grothe (2670 yds passing, 14 TDs, 872 yds rushing, 10 TDs) is an incredibly versatile playmaker who leads an offense that returns 10 starters. On defense, All-American DE George Selvie is one of the best defenders in the nation and leads a defense that surrendered only 20 pts/gm last season (not including the aforementioned Sun Bowl). Good recruiting in the offseason will help shore up the few holes and USF should contend again this year.

Worst-case scenario – If the Bulls falter in conference they could drop to 7-5.

Best-case scenario – A win at home against Kansas and a 6-1 conference record would give the Bulls an 11-1 record and a share of the Big East title.

Predictions – The December 6^th game in Morgantown will likely determine the conference championship. Don’t expect the Bulls to win.

Wins: Tennessee-Martin, @UCF, @FIU, @NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, @Cincinnati, Rutgers, UCONN – Losses: Kansas, @Louisville, @West Virginia

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3) Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3, 4-3)

Pittsburgh is going to use a soft non-conference schedule to propel itself into contention in the Big East. RB LeSean McCoy should have an excellent season and has the ability to net more than 1,500 rushing yards. McCoy’s biggest strength is his ability to carry the ball 30 times a game and wear opponents down. Unfortunately, McCoy will have to be great because the passing offense has been anemic. Last season, three quarterbacks combined to throw only 10 touchdown passes versus 17 interceptions. The offense is not the Panthers’ biggest strength, however. Last year’s defense was ranked 5^th nationally and returns several players. Additionally, the squad’s depth from last year makes it easier to replace those that left.

Worst-case scenario – The non-conference schedule should be a breeze for the Panthers, with the exception of a game in South Bend. 7-5 is possible.

Best-case scenario – Pittsburgh would need a lot of help, but if they can win @USF or @Cincinnati, they could go 10-2.

Predictions – Pitt will once again take the Backyard Brawl and destroy West Virginia’s chances at the BCS championship.

Wins: Bowling Green, Buffalo, Iowa, @Syracuse, @Navy, Rutgers, @Notre Dame, West Virginia, @UCONN – Losses: @USF, Louisville, @Cincinnati

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4) Cincinnati Bearcats (9-4, 4-3)

I write this while Ben Mauk is pushing forward his finally appeal to receive another year of eligibility but let’s just say that, at this point, I have as much of a chance of suiting up for Cincy at QB this year as does Mauk. With last year’s starter gone, along with 2005-6 starter and last year’s backup Dustin Grutza, the QB position is wide open. Five men are vying for the position with Notre Dame transfer Demetrius Jones probably the top prospect at this point. Replacing Mauk’s 31 TD passes will be the first priority if Big East Coach of the Year Brian Kelly wants a repeat of his top 20 scoring offense. The defense loses three All-Big East players and may struggle to grab the 48 takeaways it had last season.

Worst-case scenario – Home losses to Rutgers and Pitt could drop the Bearcats to 7-6.

Best-case scenario – A win at Oklahoma is not going to happen, so Cincinnati would have to win in-house to improve. 10-3 could be possible.

Predictions – Other than a game at Oklahoma, the non-conference schedule is a breeze and 5-1 there should be guaranteed. Since they’re going to Hawai’i they get to add another cupcake to their schedule, which is why they’ll be 9-4 instead of 8-4.

Wins: Eastern Kentucky, Miami (OH), @Akron, @Marshall, Rutgers, @Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, @Hawai’i – Losses: @Oklahoma, @UCONN, USF, @West Virginia

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5) Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5, 3-4)

Ray Rice left Rutgers after compiling almost 5,000 career rushing yards that the Knights will somehow have to replace. They’re hoping that in 2008 they can get that production out of their passing game. Third year starter Mike Teel (3147 yds) returns at quarterback and he will have two 1,000 yard receivers to throw to in Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood. On defense, 15 players who started games in 2007 will return to the nation’s 5^th ranked pass defense. The line will have to improve, however, or the secondary’s greatness won’t matter.

Worst-case scenario – North Carolina is not a guarantee but they won’t drop below .500.

Best-case scenario – An opening home win against Fresno State would give the Knights a lot of momentum (not to mention a 4-0 record) going into back-to-back road games with West Virginia and Cincinnati. Upset wins there would result in their second ten-win season in three years.

Predictions – They’re not going to beat Fresno, nor are they going to beat WVU. Rice won’t be replaced, but the passing game should play well enough to net seven wins.

Wins: North Carolina, @Navy, Morgan State, UCONN, Syracuse, Army, Lousiville – Losses: Fresno State, @West Virginia, @Cincinnati, @Pitt, @USF

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6) Louisville Cardinals (7-5, 3-4)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Louisville won 40 games over four years, from 2003-2006, which makes last year’s abysmal .500 season (sans bowl game) all the worse. They just couldn’t get on a streak, never winning more than two games in a row. QB Brian Brohm—who threw for 4,000 yards last year—is gone to the NFL but his backup Hunter Cantwell will be just fine. Brohm’s loss means the running game, which didn’t have a 700 yard rusher, will have to improve. Also needing to vastly improve is the defense, which gave up 38+ points SEVEN times in 2007, including to awful teams like Middle Tennessee and Syracuse. The defensive line should be good this season, but three of the four starting linebackers will need to be replaced.

Worst-case scenario – Home games against Kentucky, UCONN, and USF will be trouble and could lead to a 4-8 year.

Best-case scenario – The home game with Kansas State is winnable, as are their trips to Syracuse and Rutgers. But 8-4 will be difficult to get to.

Predictions – Louisville should get over .500, but not much.

Wins: Kentucky, Tennessee Tech, UCONN, @Memphis, Middle Tennessee, USF, @Pitt – Losses: Kansas State, @Syracuse, Cincinnati, West Virginia, @Rutgers

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7) Connecticut Huskies (6-6, 2-5)

UCONN had something of a charmed season in 2007, riding a cake schedule and a home against USF to an 8-1 record. Losing three of their last four brought them back down to earth, but there are reasons to be enthusiastic about 2008. 19 starters return in total and the schedule is as full of fluff and frosting as ever. Scheduling three BCS schools may look good on paper, but a close look reveals North Carolina and Baylor; not exactly powerhouses. QB Tyler Lorenzon had a decent season last year, but needs to improve. Andre Dixon and Donald Brown, both of whom rushed for 800+ yards last year will be back, but the offense needs to score. In 2007, they scored more than 30 points only five times and three of those were against Duke, Maine, and Temple. The defensive line played incredibly well last year with its two defensive ends combining for 16 sacks. Unfortunately, nobody on this team stands out as a legitimate talent, and a repeat of last year’s nine-win season is unlikely.

Worst-case scenario – dropping home games against Virginia and USF could make for a 4-8 season.

Best-case scenario – @North Carolina, @Rutgers, and @USF are winnable, so nine wins could happen.

Predictions – Nine wins won’t happen. The Huskies will struggle to get back to .500.

Wins: Hofstra, @Temple, Virginia, Baylor, Cincinnati, @Syracuse – Losses: @Louisville, @North Carolina, Rutgers, West Virginia, @USF, Pittsburgh

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8 ) Syracuse Orangemen (3-9, 1-6)

Syracuse is, by far, the worst team in the Big East and has been for some time. Let’s break down their futility. Seven wins in the last three years. Only three of those wins have been against BCS schools and only two came in Big East play. Much of the problem has been an anemic offense. QB Andrew Robinson wasn’t terrible last year but he will have to improve in order to make up for the awful running game which netted 753 yards TOTAL in 2007. In other words, Beanie Wells of Ohio State had more than twice as many yards rushing as the entire Syracuse team. The defense wasn’t much better, surrendering 35 pts/gm. If we remove Miami (OH) and Buffalo from the totals Syracuse gave up an average of 39 points per game and allowed 30+ points in 9 of their 10 games. Someone new is going to have to step up if Syracuse wants to win anything this year.

Worst-case scenario – The Orangeman will beat Akron and Northeastern, but nothing else is guaranteed. 2-10.

Best-case scenario – Maybe they can pick up a road game with Northwestern. 4-8 is very generous.

Predictions – This team will be bad. They’ll upset someone (they usually do) but three wins would probably be a good finish.

Wins: Akron, Northeastern, Louisville – Losses: @Northwestern, Penn State, Pitt, @West Virginia, @USF, @Rutgers, UCONN, @Notre Dame, @Cincinnati

This is the sixth in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.

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Day Six: The Independents

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There isn’t much to say about these teams as a group, so let’s just get into it.

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1) Navy Midshipmen (7-5)

The more things change, the more they stay the same; at least in Annapolis. Head coach Paul Johnson is gone, but his triple option (crucial in Navy’s return to competitiveness) remains. With third-year starter Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada returning at quarterback to lead the way the Midshipmen will be looking to put up another 4,000+ rushing yards again. If Navy wants to get back to a bowl game, however, their defense will have to step up. They gave up more than 30 points in nine games last season and more than 40 points in seven games. The defense will improve and the success or failure of the Midshipmen will depend on how much improvement the back 8 makes.

Worst-case scenario – The schedule isn’t terribly difficult with four games against the MAC and Conference USA. Then again, this is a team that gave up 34 points to Ball State, 59 points to Delaware and 62 points to North Texas last season. If the defense falters, they will drop some of those winnable games again and fall to 4-8.

Best-case scenario – Air Force, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame could be winnable games, but I doubt it. 8-4 is a reach.

Predictions – The running game will be great, the defense will improve, and they won’t give up 36 pts/gm again. Chalk up another winning season for Navy.

Wins: Towson, @Ball State, @Duke, SMU, Temple, @Northern Illinois, Army – Losses: Rutgers, @Wake Forest, @Air Force, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

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2) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-6)

2007 was abysmal for the Fighting Irish. A 1-9 start led to a 3-9 finish and at no point did this feel like a quality football team. The offensive line was to blame for many of the offense’s problems, allowing an NCAA record 58 sacks. As Dennis Dodd puts it, “the good for 2008: Three starters return from one of the most inexperienced lines in recent Notre Dame history. The bad: Three starters return from one of the most inexperienced lines in recent history.” The line was also the bulk of the reason for the abysmal 2.1 yds/carry by the Irish rushers. On the defensive side of the ball, potential Defensive POY Brian Smith (a MLB who can play at DE or safety) is heading up a defense that will be asked to blitz much more heavily in order to put pressure on the other teams and force more turnovers. The talent isn’t there for this team to return to the BCS ranks, but the schedule is very favorable.

Worst-case scenario – It is so difficult to predict what this team will do. Since they play a lot of BCS conference schools it is possible they will lose many more games than I have predicted. A repeat 3-9 season is unlikely, but possible, and could put Weis’s job in jeopardy.

Best-case scenario – Home games against Michigan and Pitt are winnable, while they could put a scare into North Carolina as well. 8-4 is possible.

Predictions – An up and down year for the Irish will see them improve behind the arm of Jimmy Clausen, but they won’t be returning to national power status any time soon.

Wins: San Diego State, Purdue, Stanford, @Washington, Navy, Syracuse – Losses: Michigan, @Michigan State, @North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Boston College, @USC

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3) Army Black Knights (2-10)

In the past six years Army has beaten exactly one BCS conference school, Baylor in 2006 (the Cincinnati and USF wins in 2004 don’t count because they were CUSA teams at the time). Over the last 11 years, the Black Knights have won exactly 21 games against D-1A schools; not an impressive statistic. But it seems that Army has found the cure to its winning woes: schedule terrible teams. Last year’s slate wasn’t exactly intimidating, with only four BCS schools leading to a 4-8 record. It seems that Army hopes to up its record to .500 by removing two of those tough games and scheduling patsies instead. The Knights are also hoping to improve their actual team, though whether or not that is possible is debatable. They’ve abandoned the pass-heavy and balanced attacks and are trying to get back to a run-based team, one that will likely see a lot of option and wishbone sets. They’ll have to greatly improve on their 87.5 rush yds/gm, though. And quarterback Carson Williams will likely lose playing time if the coaches want to run the option exclusively. The defense lacks depth, but the middle defenders (MLB and DTs) will be solid and will need to generate a strong pass rush in order to take the pressure off of a young secondary.

Worst-case scenario – With this schedule 2-10, while possible, would be a disaster.

Best-case scenario – Army can get to 6-6, and it wouldn’t be particularly surprising given the competition.

Predictions – I think this team is in for a rude awakening as, even against a schedule full of cupcakes, they will struggle mightily in implementing their new defensive scheme.
Wins: New Hampshire, Eastern Michigan – Losses: Temple, Akron, @Texas A&M, @Tulane, @Buffalo, Louisiana Tech, Air Force, @Rice, @Rutgers, Navy

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4) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-10)

WKU is in its final transition year before entering full FBS status. Unfortunately, this will not be a banner year for the Hilltoppers as they will most likely see their run of 12 consecutive winning seasons come to a crashing halt. Last year they cruised to a seven win season based on wins over such vaunted powerhouses as Morehead State, Chattanooga, North Carolina Central, Indiana State, Eastern Kentucky, and West Virginia Tech (which isn’t even an NCAA team). This year, however, they have to play an FBS-caliber schedule; though, given the team’s Sun Belt ties, half of their games will be against that low-caliber conference. Add in two FCS gimmes and four pay-to-play road games and WKU has a pair of easy wins and 10 games they will probably lose.

Worst-case scenario – They’re not going to lose to Murray State or Eastern Kentucky, so 2-10 is the worst-case.

Best-case scenario – Maybe they can steal a game against FIU or North Texas. 4-8.

Predictions – This team is not good, and this year’s schedule will show it.

Wins: @Eastern Kentucky, Murray State – Losses: @Indiana, @Alabama, @Kentucky, @Virginia Tech, Ball State, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, @Troy, Middle Tennessee, @FIU

This is the fifth in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.

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Day Five: Mountain West Conference

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The MWC looks to be fielding a solid group of competitive teams. More than half of the teams will will finish above .500 and three could reasonably win ten games. BYU is looking to crack the BCS while Utah and TCU will try their best to make sure that doesn’t happen. The bottom half of the conference is weak, though it should be significantly improved over last season.

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1) BYU Cougars (11-1, 7-1)

The chic pick among non-BCS schools to crash the BCS this year is BYU, and for good reason. The Cougars return 9 offensive starters to a group that put up 30 pts/gm in 2007. Leading the way is Heisman candidate Max Hall (3900 yds, 26 TDs). Running the ball will be Harvey Unga, who last year put up over 1300 yards and 13 TDs. More than half of the offense could make its way onto the all-conference roster. On defense, only 3 starters return, though all 3 could make the All-MWC team.

Worst-case scenario – Anything other than an 8-0 conference record would be a disappointment. There are four possible stumbling blocks. A home game against UCLA and road games with Washington, TCU, and Utah. Losing all of these would make for a dismal 8-4 season.

Best-case scenario – They run the table and earn a BCS bid.

Predictions – The two tough conference road games will test BYU and probably break them once.

Wins: Northern Iowa, @Washington, UCLA, Wyoming, @Utah State, New Mexico, @TCU, UNLV, @Colorado State, San Diego State, @Air Force – Losses: @Utah

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2) Utah Utes (10-2, 6-2)

If BYU is #1 in the MWC, then Utah is #1b. All of the skill players are returning from a 9-win season including RB Darrell Mack, who averaged more than 100 yards per game last year. Additionally, the best secondary in the country is returning 4 of its 5 starters.

Worst-case scenario – @Michigan, @Air Force, TCU, and BYU will all be tough wins. Losses would drop them to 8-4.

Best-case scenario – I don’t think the Utes can run the table, but 11-1 and a conference title are both possible.

Predictions – I’m not sure if beating Michigan is an upset, but it will happen.

Wins: @Michigan, UNLV, @Utah State, Weber State, Oregon State, @Wyoming, Colorado State, @New Mexico, @San Diego State, BYU – Losses: @Air Force, TCU

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3) TCU Horned Frogs (9-3, 6-2)

TCU has a lot of question marks on the offense, not the least of which is figuring out how to replace four starters on the offensive line. Whoever ends up starting there will be have to step up big time. In order for TCU to have success this season the defense is going to have to carry the load. Luckily, this was the 15^th ranked defense in the nation last season and led the country in sacks.

Worst-case scenario – TCU will have to pull off some upsets to get to 9-3. If they don’t they could fall to 7-5.

Best-case scenario – 10-2 if they lose to Utah or BYU (not both) and run the table in the rest of their conference schedule.

Predictions – They will take one game against the top two teams but will likely drop one against the rest of the conference. A weak non-conference schedule (outside of Oklahoma) will help them get to nine wins.

Wins: Stephen F. Austin, Stanford, @SMU, San Diego State, @Colorado State, Wyoming, @UNLV, @Utah, Air Force – Losses: @New Mexico, @Oklahoma, BYU

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4) New Mexico Lobos (6-6, 4-4)

The Lobos made a stunning run to 9-4 last season, mostly thanks to a 4-1 record against a weak non-conference schedule. This year’s slate is significantly more difficult with home games against Texas A&M and Arizona and a road trip to Tulsa. If they want to hit nine wins again, they will have to play much better that they did a year ago. QB Donovan Porterie should be solid entering his third season but he will be missing two 1,000 yard receivers thank to graduation. The secondary is the highlight of the defense with CB Deandre Wright a favorite to win MWC DPOY honors. The problem with the defense is that, while the scheme is great, the players are not. And with potentially potent but inconsistent offenses (namely Texas A&M and Arizona) on the schedule the defense will need to be better than it was last year.

Worst-case scenario – If the Lobos start out slowly they could be 0-4 before they know it. Combined with a 4-4 conference record they could finish 5-7.

Best-case scenario – If New Mexico can sweep its non-conference schedule and pick up an extra conference win they could reach 9-3.

Predictions – It’ll be an up and down season as the Lobos will fail to sustain a streak (winning or losing) of longer than two games.

Wins: TCU, Texas A&M, @New Mexico State, Wyoming, San Diego State, @UNLV – Losses: Arizona, @Tulsa, @BYU, @Air Force, Utah, @Colorado State

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5) Air Force Falcons (7-5, 3-5)

No team in the country has more personnel to replace than Air Force. Only three offensive starters return and the two best players the team has seen in years, Shaun Carney and Chad Hall, have graduated. Gone are the team’s top 6 rushers, its top 2 receivers, and its four-year starting quarterback. On defense, only six starters return and the new faces among the back eight will have to step up quickly.

Worst-case scenario – The schedule makes it really difficult for the Falcons to win fewer than six games.

Best-case scenario – Air Force might be able to go .500 in the MWC, which would give them eight wins.

Predictions – So with so much to replace how will they still win seven games? One word: schedule. They’ve padded their schedule with Army, Navy, Houston, and Southern Utah, which should easily make them 4-0 outside of the MWC.

Wins: Southern Utah, @Houston, Utah, Navy, New Mexico, @Army, Colorado State – Losses: @Wyoming, @San Diego State, @UNLV, BYU, @TCU

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6) Wyoming Cowboys (6-6, 3-5)

2007 was a disappointing season for the Cowboys, who started with a win against Virginia but couldn’t translate their non-conference success (3-1) into conference wins (2-6). The Cowboys should improve in 2008, but they will not yet be competitive in their conference. 15 starters return from a year ago, the best of which is DE John Fletcher, who had 10.5 sacks last year. The offense will struggle this year. In 2007 they finished 2^nd-to-last in the MWC in rushing and the passing attack will be weaker this season since they have lost their best receivers.

Worst-case scenario – 3-1 outside of the MWC is a given but the Cowboys will have to be careful not to drop home games with San Diego State and Colorado State to wind up 4-8.

Best-case scenario – They’ll have to win on the road if they want to move up with games against BYU, TCU, New Mexico, and UNL all away from home.

Predictions – The non-conference schedule is easy enough that they should start 4-1. The back half will be rough, though.

Wins: Ohio, Air Force, North Dakota State, Bowling Green, San Diego State, Colorado State – Losses: @BYU, @New Mexico, Utah, @TCU, @Tennessee, @UNLV

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7) Colorado State Rams (5-7, 3-5)

The Rams have really struggled over the last few years with four wins or fewer in three out of their last four seasons. They will likely continue to struggle in 2008. They have finally figured out their offensive scheme, though. With two good running backs who combined for 1650 yards last season, look for them to pound away at opposing defenses all year long. The offensive line is young, however, and could cause the running game to struggle early. On defense, all three starting linebackers return and they will be needed, as they’re going to have to make up a dearth of experience in the secondary, where the cornerbacks have none.

Worst-case scenario – They could struggle with Houston and New Mexico at home and go 3-9.

Best-case scenario – The Rams would have to win on the road against Wyoming or San Diego State to hit .500.

Predictions – Colorado State needs another year or two to develop before they get to bowl eligibility.

Wins: Sacramento State, Houston, UNLV, @San Diego State, New Mexico – Losses: Colorado, @Cal, TCU, @Utah, BYU, @Air Force, @Wyoming

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8 ) San Diego State Aztecs (4-8, 2-6)

The Aztecs are going to benefit from a soft non-conference schedule but will still only get two wins from that. An awful offensive line loses three starters who will most likely be replaced by freshmen. Also gone is QB Kevin O’Connell, who pretty much was the entire offense for SDSU. In losing O’Connell, the Aztecs lose their leading passer (3063 yards), their leading rusher (408 yards), and their leading offensive scorer (O’Connell accounted for 26 of their 35 offensive touchdowns). While the offense was bad last year—the quarterback aside—the defense was atrocious, giving up almost 500 yds/gm to finish 115^th in the nation. 9 starters return from that group, which could be good if they drastically improve, or bad if they don’t.

Worst-case scenario – The non-conference schedule is pretty weak, but dropping a home game with Idaho would put the Aztecs at 3-9.

Best-case scenario – A road game with San Jose State and a home date with Colorado State are possible victories, but 5-7 is as good as it gets.

Predictions – The only reason the Aztecs will win four games is because of the favorable schedule. This is not even remotely close to a decent team.

Wins: Cal Poly, Idaho, Air Force, UNLV – Losses: @Notre Dame, @San Jose State, @TCU, @New Mexico, Colorado State, @Wyoming, @BYU, Utah

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9) UNLV Rebels (3-9, 2-6)

UNLV played worse than their talent deserved last season. That’s not to say they were a .500 team, but they certainly should have won more than two games. The offense was not great last season, but they should improve, returning nine starters. The only question mark is at quarterback where four men are competing for the starting role. The defense needs work. In 2007 they were completely incapable of getting into the backfield, finishing 117^th in the nation in tackles for a loss.

Worst-case scenario – They shouldn’t lose to Utah State, but every other game will be a struggle. 1-11.

Best-case scenario – Frankly, 3-9 might be generous.

Predictions – It’ll be a rough year for the Rebels, who will struggle to get three wins.

Wins: Utah State, Air Force, Wyoming – Losses: @Utah, @Arizona State, Iowa State, Nevada, @Colorado State, @BYU, TCU, New Mexico, San Diego State

This is the fourth in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.

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Day Four: Western Athletic Conference

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The WAC perennially puts up a BCS contender and this season will be no different. Two years ago it was Boise’s magical undefeated run. Last season it was Hawai’i’s cupcake induced 12-0 stretch. In 2008 Fresno State looks to take the reins as the WAC’s top dog (pun totally intended) while Boise and Nevada will nip at their heels. The Warriors will try to retain their dominance from a year ago but will find it difficult. This is a conference of haves and have-nots, with the top teams likely to perform very well and the bottom teams likely to be national cellar-dwellers.

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1) Fresno State Bulldogs (10-2, 7-1)

This team will surely turn some heads this year and, with some luck, could knock on the BCS’s door come January. They return 10 starters from an offense that put up 419 yards and 33 points per game in 2007. Tom Brandstater is the best quarterback in the league and has three legitimate NFL prospects at wide receiver. Six starters return to the defense and the secondary, which grabbed only three interceptions last year, must improve.

Worst-case scenario – Three early non-conference games will set the stage for Fresno. Losing these could drop them as far as 7-5.

Best-case scenario – It is unlikely, but the Bulldogs could run the table.

Predictions – Fresno should take 2 out of 3 from Rutgers, Wisconsin, and UCLA. The last game of the season @Boise State could decide the WAC champion.

Wins: @Rutgers, @Toledo, @UCLA, Hawaii, Idaho, @Utah State, @Louisiana Tech, Nevada, New Mexico State, @San Jose State – Losses: Wisconsin, @Boise State

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2) Boise State Broncos (9-3, 6-2)

Boise should again be in the running for a conference championship into the last weekend of the season. RB Ian Johnson returns for his senior season, though QB Tyler Tharp is gone. The only question mark on offense is the line, which lost 4 starters and lacks depth. On defense 7 starters return and they should possess a good pass rush but a weak rush defense. As far as WAC standards are concerned, however, this defense is well above average.

Worst-case scenario – Losses at home to Hawai’i and Fresno could drop them to 7-5.

Best-case scenario – If the Broncos run the table in house they could go 11-1.

Predictions – This team isn’t perfect so they will lose a few, but look for them to put some pressure on Fresno.

Wins: Idaho State, Bowling Green, Louisiana Tech, @Southern Miss, Hawai’i @San Jose State, Utah State, @Idaho, Fresno State – Losses: @Oregon, @New Mexico State, @Nevada

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3) Nevada Wolfpack (8-4, 6-2)

The Wolfpack have a problem a lot of teams would like to have. They have two very good quarterbacks who could probably start for any other team in the league. Nick Graziano, last year’s opening day starter, will have to compete with Colin Kaepernik, the man who filled in for Graziano when he was injured. Whoever wins the job will be handing off to the WAC’s #1 RB Luke Lippincort. Nevada loses a number of players from the nation’s 11^th best defense in 2007 and will rely on some of its 15 defensive additions to step in and fill the holes.

Worst-case scenario – Nevada has to beat UNLV and some of the top teams in the conference to avoid landing at 6-6.

Best-case scenario – An upset of Missouri or Texas Tech would give the Wolfpack 9 wins.

Predictions – Nevada lost seven games in 2007, but all four of their conference losses came by seven points or fewer. They will be much improved this season.

Wins: Grambling State, @UNLV, @Idaho, New Mexico State, Utah State, @Hawai’i, San Jose State, Boise State – Losses: Texas Tech, @Missouri, @Fresno State, @Louisiana Tech

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4) Hawai’i Warriors (6-7, 5-3)

Hawai’i won’t break the BCS again this season. I guarantee it. Gone is record-setting QB Colt Brennan. Gone is head coach June Jones. Gone are the team’s top four receivers. The run-and-shoot is staying. But without an incumbent quarterback there will be a lot more running and a lot less shooting. On defense, LB Solomon Elimimian, who tallied 145 tackles in 2007, will lead a corps that should be able to keep the team in games.

Worst-case scenario – Hawai’i has to be careful not to drop a couple of winnable road games against Utah State and New Mexico State to fall to 4-9.

Best-case scenario – If the Warriors can pick up a non-conference upset, they could slide above .500.

Predictions – A quirk in the schedule, which gives Hawai’i 13 games, will cost them a bowl bid.

Wins: Weber State, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, @Utah State, @New Mexico State, Idaho – Losses: @Florida, @Oregon State, @Fresno State, @Boise State, Nevada, Washington State, Cincinnati

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5) New Mexico State Aggies (6-6, 4-4)

Senior quarterback Chase Holbrook and senior wide receiver Chirs Wilkins return to try to do what they couldn’t last season: put up a ton of points. A new defensive scheme, the 3-5-3, has been implemented in an attempt to cover their weaknesses in the secondary and on the line.

Worst-case scenario – The Aggies have to play significantly better than they did last season or they’ll finish 4-8…again.

Best-case scenario – They will have to beat the better teams in the conference if they want to best .500.

Predictions – This is not yet the breakthrough season for the Aggies, though 6-6 is a marked improvement from their 0-12 2005 campaign.

Wins: Nicholls State, @UTEP, San Jose State, Boise State, Louisiana Tech, @Utah State – Losses: @Nebraska, New Mexico, @Nevada, @Idaho, Hawai’i, @Fresno State

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6) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-6, 4-4)

RB Patrick Johnson will have an excellent line behind which he can run this season. The Bulldogs have still not found a starting quarterback, though, so Johnson will have to carry a heavy load. The defense improved greatly from 2006 to 2007, dropping 62 yds/gm from its average and giving up 32 points per game compared to 43 points two years ago. The back seven provide the strength for this squad.

Worst-case scenario – Tech has to beat the lesser teams in the WAC. If they don’t, they’ll struggle to win 5.

Best-case sceneario – A couple of home upsets against New Mexico and Hawai’i would push them to 8-4.

Predictions – This is an average team that will finish with an average record.

Wins: Southeastern Louisiana, Idaho, @Army, @San Jose State, Utah State, Nevada – Losses: Mississippi State, @Kansas, @Boise State, @Hawai’i, Fresno State, @New Mexico State

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7) San Jose State Spartans (4-8, 2-6)

The Spartans need to establish a running game this season if they want to have any chance for success. While Kevin Jarovich leads a loaded group of receivers, the running backs’ abysmal 2.6 yds/carry last season meant that teams could key on the passing game. The defense is in transition having lost two all-conference linebackers and their best defensive back. PAC-10 transfers DE Jeff Schweiger (USC) and CB Coye Francis (Oregon State) should step in and contribute immediately.

Worst-case scenario – The Spartans’ only conference wins will come against Idaho and Utah State. If they lose those they’ll go winless in the conference.

Best-case scenario – They might be able to pull off home wins against Louisiana Tech and Boise State but 6-6 will be out of their reach.

Predictions – Two wins in-conference and two wins out will be all they’ll get.

Wins: UC-Davis, San Diego State, Utah State, @Idaho – Losses: @Nebraska, @Stanford, @Hawai’i, @New Mexico State, Boise State, Louisiana Tech, @Nevada, Fresno State

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8 ) Idaho Vandals (2-10, 1-7)

What can you expect from a 1-11 team that returns 18 starters? Normally returning a lot of players is a good thing but what if they were lousy the first time around? Sophomore RB Deonte Jackson (1175 yds in 2007) is the one bright spot on this team. The defense gave up 37 pts/gm last season and doesn’t look to improve much because it lost all of its linebackers in the off-season.

Worst-case scenario – They’ll beat Idaho State but that could be it.

Best-case scenario – They might be able to pick up two conference wins but even that is pushing it.

Predictions – The Vandals will sneak a conference home win to go along with Idaho State and finish 2-10.

Wins: Idaho State, New Mexico State – Losses: @Arizona, Western Michigan, @Utah State, @San Diego State, Nevada, @Fresno State, @Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Boise State, @Hawai’i

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9) Utah State Aggies (1-11, 1-7)

This team is bad. They have no quarterback since projected starter Jase McCormick left the team. They have no secondary and no offensive playmakers. They return all 11 defensive starters plus some depth but, given that it was the worst defense in the WAC, that won’t help.

Worst-case scenario – 0-12. It’s more likely than you might think.

Best-case scenario – Maybe they can pick up a home win against the other Aggies but that is a big maybe.

Predictions – It will be a long season.

Wins: Idaho – Losses: @UNLV, @Oregon, Utah, BYU, @San Jose State, @Nevada, Fresno State, Hawai’i, @Boise State, @Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State

Sunday: MWC

Monday: Independents and Big East

This is the third in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.

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Day Three: Conference USA

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Conference USA is another conference that has not been able to have a team hang with the big boys for some time now. In fact, no conference champion currently in the league has finished in the Top 25 since 1999. The losses of TCU and Louisville tremendously hurt the league’s credibility and, though they have had several 10 win seasons lately, few of the teams have made serious runs at the BCS. One team could this season, but it looks to be another mediocre year for the teams of C-USA.

Teams are listed in expected order of finish:

Eastern Division

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1) UCF Knights (8-4, 7-1)

I originally had the Knights in second in this division, but on second thought, they deserve to be on top. The only piece they’re losing is RB Kevin Smith who, given that he was last season’s leading rusher, will leave some big shoes to fill. Fortunately, on the other side of the ball, UCF returns 9 defensive starters who should give the team the ability to cruise through this conference. If they had scheduled another cupcake (like Southern Miss did) they could have been looking at 10 wins.

Worst-case scenario – If UCF can’t replace Smith they could drop a couple conference games (like their road trip to Tulsa) and fall to 6-6.

Best-case scenario – It isn’t out of the question that UCF could run the table in house and finish 9-3.

Predictions – UCF gets home games against Southern Miss and East Carolina, which is fortunate, but 1-3 in non-conference play is as good as it will get.

Wins: South Carolina State, @UTEP, SMU, @Tulsa, East Carolina, Southern Miss, @Memphis, UAB – Losses: South Florida, @Boston College, @Miami, @Marshall

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2) Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5, 5-3)

The Eagles are going to be running with a mix of experience and inexperience in 2008. They bring back Damian Fletcher, the league’s top running back, but after that there is a lot of youth. Their quarterbacks have thrown a total of one pass in college football. They are returning only four defensive starters and will be starting an entirely new defensive line. One advantage they do have is their schedule, which has only one road game against a team in the top half of the conference and has them skipping Tulsa, Houston, and Tulane. This isn’t a particularly great team, but the schedule is in their favor.

Worst-case scenario – Youth always has its first hiccups on the road and with three road games against the bottom of the conference, the Eagles will have to be careful not to lose bad games and drop to 6-6.

Best-case scenario – If they can beat the other good teams in their division, they could move up to 9-3.

Predictions – Southern Miss should go 2-2 outside of the C-USA, but they won’t be great in conference play.

Wins: UL-Lafayette, @Arkansas State, Marshall, UTEP, @Rice, UAB, @SMU – Losses: @Auburn, Boise State, @Memphis, @UCF, East Carolina

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3) East Carolina Pirates (6-6, 6-2)

East Carolina had a good season last year and there is reason to be hopeful this year. They scored 30+ points in 6 of their last 7 games in 2007 and they are returning 9 defensive starters. So why am I picking them to finish with a worse record? Their schedule is brutal. Virginia Tech, West Virginia, and Virginia all grace the schedule and NC State will be a tough win as well. Plus, their games against the best two teams in the division are both on the road.

Worst-case scenario – Frankly, 6-6 is probably the worst it will get, but if they falter at home, they could slip to 5-7.

Best-case scenario – Winning on the road at NC State could happen, but they would have to beat both UCF and Southern Miss to move up to 8-4.

Predictions – Yes, they played Virginia Tech well last season, but this team is going to struggle outside of the conference. If they could pull an upset against UCF, they could contend for the league title, but it’s probably not going to happen. Don’t be surprised if this team starts 1-5.

Wins: @Tulane, Memphis, Marshall, @Southern Miss, @UAB, UTEP – Losses: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, @NC State, Houston, @ Virginia, @UCF

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4) Marshall Thundering Herd (5-7, 4-4)

The good news is that Marshall is returning 8 starters on each side of the ball. The bad news is that neither the offense nor the defense was particularly stellar last year, as the team went 3-9. This year, they have a much more favorable schedule, but they still lack a good quarterback and look to be inconsistent most of the season.

Worst-case scenario – I have them winning a couple of difficult home games, but if they can’t pull those out it could be 4-8 for the Herd.

Best-case scenario – There aren’t any upsets on the horizon and 7-5 will be difficult.

Predictions – A couple of big conference wins will be needed if Marshall wants to hit .500.

Wins: Illinois State, Memphis, @UAB, Houston, UCF – Losses: @Wisconsin, @Southern Miss, @West Virginia, Cincinnati, @East Carolina, @Rice, Tulsa

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5) Memphis Tigers (4-8, 2-6)

This team is difficult to predict. They return 9 starters from last year’s defense and have two of the best receivers in the league in Duke Calhoun (62 rec ,890 yds) and Carlos Singleton (11 TD). Unfortunately, at this point they have no quarterback. The potential savior at the position is Arkelon Hall, a JUCO transfer who was a top-rated pocket passer coming out of high school. If he (or someone else) can take control of the offense, they could do well.

Worst-case scenario – A 1-7 conference record combines with a loss to Arkansas State for 2-10 overall.

Best-case scenario – The Tigers pull off a couple of road upsets to hit 5-7.

Predictions – A rough schedule won’t be kind to Memphis and a 2-6 conference record puts them near the bottom.

Wins: Rice, Nicholls State, Arkansas State, Southern Miss – Losses: @Mississippi, @Marshall, @UAB, Louisville, @East Carolina, @SMU, UCF, Tulane

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6) UAB Blazers (2-10, 1-7)

What do you say about a 2-10 team that returns 17 starters? Will they improve enough to improve their record or will they play as poorly as they did the year before. The rushing game for both sides was atrocious last year with the offense ranking 104^th in the country and the defense ranking 119^th (that’s dead last). Those will have to improve if UAB stands any chance of succeeding.

Worst-case scenario – There’s only one gimme on this schedule. 1-11 is a possibility.

Best-case scenario – There isn’t much room for improvement here. They have the bad luck of drawing the Western Division’s best three teams and face both UCF and Southern Miss on the road. They may be able to get up to 3-9, but that’s about it.

Predicitions – A long season in Birmingham.

Wins: Alabama State, Memphis – Losses: Tulsa, @FAU, @Tennessee, @South Carolina, @Houston, Marshall, @Southern Miss, @Tulane, East Carolina, @UCF

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Western Division

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1) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-2, 7-1)

A 10-4 team a year ago, the Hurricane return 9 starters to an offense that put up more than 500 yds/gm, including 3 WRs who each tallied over 1,000 yards. A new quarterback is in the mix, however, with David Johnson the man most likely to step up. Gus Malzahn is bringing his 3-3-5 defense to Tulsa which should fit the team just fine. They return 3 All-Conference linebackers from 2007.

Worst-case scenario – Their non-conference schedule could provide some hurdles and, if they’re not careful, they could drop a couple conference games. 7-5 is possible, though not likely.

Best-case scenario – Tulsa would have to run the table to make 11-1. It could happen.

Predictions – Tulsa won’t run the table in house, but should put up a good non-conference record and start knocking on the Top 25’s door.

Wins: @UAB, @North Texas, New Mexico, Central Arkansas, Rice, @SMU, UTEP, @Houston, Tulane, @Marshall – Losses: UCF, @Arkansas

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2) Houston Cougars (7-5, 6-2)

Look for Houston to put up some points this season as they institute a Texas Tech-style spread offense. The question is: do they have a quarterback who can handle that kind of workload? On the defense, 8 starters return to a stellar squad including Phillip Hunt, who led the conference with 10.5 sacks last season.

Worst-case scenario – Any slip-ups in the conference could drop them to .500.

Best-case scenario – If they can win a couple of non-conference games and hold steady in house, 9 wins isn’t out of the question.

Predictions – They won’t win those non-conference games and they will slip up, once at least.

Wins: Southern, @East Carolina, UAB, @SMU, Tulane, UTEP, @Rice – Losses: @Oklahoma State, Air Force, @Colorado state, @Marshall, Tulsa

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3) Tulane Green Wave (6-6, 4-4)

I’m not sure why I’m picking Tulane to improve this season. They lose Matt Forte (the nation’s 2^nd leading rusher) and aren’t adding anything substantial. They do return 7 defensive starters, but they come back to a defense that finished 1^st in the league against the run and 11^th against the pass. If they can shore up that pass defense and replace Forte (not an easy task) they could compete.

Worst-case scenario – The defense falls completely apart, they lose to UL-Monroe and Army and finish 4-8.

Best-case scenario – They pull off a home upset against East Carolina and hit 7-5.

Predictions – Neither of those things will happen. Having to play Tulsa and Houston on the road, which hurts, but they should make it to .500.

Wins: UL-Monroe, SMU, Army, @Houston, Tulane, @Marshall – Losses: @Alabama, East Carolina, @UTEP, @LSU, @Houston, @Tulsa

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4) UTEP Miners (5-7, 3-5)

UTEP decided to fix its 117^th ranked defense by scrapping it completely. New Defensive Coordinator Osia Lewis brings his 3-3-5 scheme in from New Mexico where his defense finished 14^th in the nation in 2007. On the offensive side quarterback Trevor Vittatoe (25 TDs) and WR Jeff Motari (65 rec., 891 yds, 13 TDs) should make a formidable combination.

Worst-case scenario – UTEP draws UCF, Southern Miss, and ECU out of the East, so if they drop many games against the West, 3-9 awaits.

Best-case scenario – If they can pull off a couple of wins against the top five in the conference they could hit 7-5.

Predictions – The Miners will beat the bad teams, lose to the good ones, and finish below .500.

Wins: @Buffalo, Tulane, Rice, @UL-Lafayette, SMU – Losses: Texas, New Mexico State, UCF, @Southern Miss, @Tulsa, @Houston, @East Carolina

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5) Rice Owls (4-8, 2-7)

Rice would fit in very well in the MAC with its good offense and terrible defense. QB Chase Clement and WR Jarrett Dillard are among the best in the league at their respective positions. But the defense is atrocious. It surrendered 43 pts/gm last season and finished last in the country in pass defense.

Worst-case scenario – Rice will need to play well against SMU and Marshall to avoid going 0-8 in conference play.

Best-case scenario – Road games against UTEP and Memphis are the Owls’ only chances for improvement.

Predictions – Rice is slowly improving and if the defense can play better, they will continue to do so.

Wins: SMU, North Texas, Army, Marshall – Losses: @Memphis, @Vanderbilt, @Texas, @Tulsa, Southern Miss, @Tulane, @UTEP, Houston

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6) SMU Mustangs (2-10, 1-7)

A 1-11 record last season led to a coaching change. For some strange reason June Jones decided to vacate the sunny climes of Hawai’i for the, well, sunny climes of Dallas. Jones brings his high-powered offense to SMU but will see little success. The main reason is that Jones’s offense requires quality and quantity in its receiving corps, neither of which the Mustangs possess. It’s also nice that Jones doesn’t care about defense because SMU ranked 116^th in total defense and 117^th in scoring defense in 2007.

Worst-case scenario – Texas State is the only given on the schedule so a repeat 1-11 season is possible.

Best-case scenario – If they beat Rice on the road they could make 3-9.

Predictions – A long, long season for Jones’s boys.

Wins: Texas State, Memphis – Losses: @Rice, @Texas Tech, TCU, @Tulane, @UCF, Tulsa, Houston, @Navy, @UTEP, Southern Miss

Saturday: WAC

Sunday (Maybe): MWC

This is the second in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.

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Day Two: Mid-American Conference

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The MAC is an anomaly. One would think that after this many seasons as a Division 1-A conference, they would have some success to show for it. Yet, with the exception of Ben Roethlisberger’s Miami squads and the Byron Leftwich-led Marshall team (now gone to C-USA), there hasn’t been much to celebrate lately. While other small conferences (namely the MWC and the WAC) have been able to put up contenders, the MAC has simply become a punching bag for the Big Ten. Can that change this year?

Teams are listed in expected order of finish:

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MAC West

1) Central Michigan Chippewas (9-3, 6-2)

Why start with the West? Because of this team right here. I don’t know why, but I am really high on the Chippewas this season. Scratch that, I know exactly why. Dan LeFevour. Question: How many players in NCAA history have passed for 3,000 yds and rushed for 1,000 yds in the same season? Answer: Two (Vince Young and Dan LeFevour). Question: How many players in NCAA history have passed for 20 TDs and rushed for 20 TDs in the same season? Answer: Okay, only Tim Tebow has done that but LeFevour was one rushing TD shy of equaling that mark last season. Compare these numbers:

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Tebow: 172.5 rat, 66.9 comp%, 3286 yds, 32 TDs, 6 INTs; 895 rush yds, 23 TDs, 4.3 YPC

LeFevour: 133.5 rat, 65.4 comp%, 3652 yds, 27 TDs, 13 INTs; 1122 rush yds, 19 TDS, 6.0 YPC

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The poor man’s Tim Tebow (or Vince Young) aside, however, there is cause for concern here. While CMU’s offense led the conference in scoring and was second in total offense, the defense was atrocious. They were 118^th in the country (that’s second-to-last) in pass defense and 111^th in scoring defense, allowing 37 points per game and giving up 30+ points in 11 of their 14 games. The offense won’t be a problem this year, but the defense needs to keep them in games.

Worst-case scenario – They have one non-conference gimme, but if their defense can’t hold it together, they could legitimately go 4-4 in the conference and fail to make a bowl game at 5-7.

Best-case scenario – They manage to pull a non-conference upset (Indiana, I’m looking at you) and run the table in the MAC to go 10-2 and head, once again, to Detroit for the Motor City Bowl.

Predictions – I really do think the Indiana upset will happen, but they won’t run the table.

Wins: Eastern Illinois, @Ohio, Buffalo, Temple, @Toledo, @Indiana, @Northern Illinois, Ball State, @Eastern Michigan – Losses: @Georgia, @Purdue, Western Michigan

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2) Toledo Rockets (7-5, 6-2)

Like the Chippewas, Toledo has decided to live by the offense and die by their defense. Last season they put up 33 pts/gm but finished 102^nd in the nation in total defense and 116^th in scoring defense. Look for the numbers to repeat themselves this season as the offense puts up a ton of points, but the defense gives up just as many.

Worst-case scenario – They won’t lose to FIU, so 1-3 in non-conference play is as bad as it will get. Like CMU, if the defense can’t hold up 4-4 is not out of the question to finish out of the bowl picture.

Best-case scenario – If Toledo gets lucky and runs the table in-house, they could reasonably go 9-3.

Predictions – Toledo is a legitimate conference contender and the division crown will likely be decided on Oct. 25^th when the Chippewas come to town.

Wins: @Eastern Michigan, FIU, Ball State, @Akron, @Western Michigan, Miami, Bowling Green – Losses: @Arizona, Fresno State, @Michigan, @Northern Illinois, Central Michigan

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3) Western Michigan Broncos (7-5, 5-3)

The Broncos play a game that is exactly the opposite of Toledo and Central Michigan. Their defense is strong; having given up 30+ points only once in conference play last season. Additionally, they are returning 10 starters to that defense, so look for them to dominate again. On offense, however, they are looking for consistent Quarterback play. Starter Tim Hiller is returning, but he needs to cut down on the turnovers if the Broncos are going to win.

Worst-case scenario – 1-3 outside of the MAC plus a couple extra bad losses could put the broncos as low as 3-9.

Best-case scenario – I don’t see them beating Nebraska or Illinois, but they could pull out a win against Toledo or CMU and hit 8 wins.

Predictions – Idaho and Tennessee Tech should be wins. Other than that, their conference schedule will be a toss-up and they’ll lose some games they shouldn’t and win some games they shouldn’t.

Wins: Northern Illinois, @Idaho, Tennessee Tech, Ohio, @Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, @Ball State – Losses: @Nebraska, @Temple, @Buffalo, Illinois, Toledo

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4) Ball State Cardinals (4-8, 2-6)

A lot of people are high on the Cardinals this season, but I just don’t see it. Yes, Quarterback Nate Davis is a legit NFL prospect. But he just doesn’t have the weapons to get it done. Add to that a defense that improved from its three predecessors and still gave up almost 30 pts/gm and there won’t be a great deal of improvement this season.

Worst-case scenario – They drop the Western Kentucky game and end up 3-9

Best-case scenario – If they are as good as some people think it’s not beyond the bounds of reason for the Cardinals to go .500 in the conference and hit .500 overall.

Predictions – They have two non-conference games they should win, but they’re just not good enough to gather many conference wins.

Wins: Northeastern, Kent State, @Western Kentucky, Eastern Michigan – Losses: Navy, @Akron, @Indiana, @Toledo, Northern Illinois, @Miami, @Central Michigan, Western Michigan

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5) Eastern Michigan Eagles (3-9, 2-6)

The best thing I can say about Eastern Michigan is that they are getting better. Unfortunately their record is not going to show that because they will be facing some difficult competition. They draw road games against Bowling Green and Temple from the East division, two games they will struggle to win. They’re also relying on a very young defense that gave up 31 pts/gm last year.

Worst-case scenario – The Eagles manage to pick up only one conference game and finish 2-10.

Best-case scenario – 4 conference wins is not unthinkable, which would give them a record of 5-7.

Predictions – Not this year. The Eagles are improving (even if their record won’t show it), but they will struggle to win four games.

Wins: Indiana State, Northern Illinois, Akron – Losses: @Michigan State, Toledo, @Maryland, @Bowling Green, @Army, @Ball State, @Western Michigan, @Temple, Central Michigan

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6) Northern Illinois Huskies (3-9, 2-6)

Don’t expect much improvement from the Huskies’ 2-10 record last season. They do have one of the conference’s best defensive players, DE Larry English, who tallied 10.5 sacks last season, but they’re struggling to find an offensive identity. They have a quarterback with a big gun in Dan Nicholson, but the coaching staff wants to move to more of a spread option system, utilizing a mobile QB. If that happens, Nicholson will likely lose playing time.

Worst-case scenario – The Huskies pull off only one conference win repeating their 2007 record of 2-10.

Best-case scenario – Three conference wins is about all that can be expected out of NIU this season. 4-8.

Predictions – They have one gimme. Every other game is going to be a fight.

Wins: Indiana State, Toledo, @Ball State – Losses: @Minnesota, @Western Michigan, @Eastern Michigan, @Tennessee, Miami, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, @ Kent State, Navy

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East Division

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1) Miami Redhawks (7-5, 6-2)

Last year’s Eastern Division champs have to be considered the favorites to repeat. They return 9 starters to the league’s 2^nd best defense including Defensive POY Clayton Mullins. Plus, their West Division draw is without two of the conference’s best teams—Central Michigan and Western Michigan. There are only two real weaknesses here. First, the offensive line lacks depth. And second, while they have plenty of depth at the skill positions, they lack a standout RB or WR

Worst-case scenario – A road game with Buffalo could provide trouble, but 6-6 should be as bad as it gets.

Best-case scenario – An upset of Vandy at home is not impossible. A 7-1 conference record would put them at 9-3.

Predictions – One non-conference given, along with the traditional MAC knack for losing games they shouldn’t will put Miami at 7-5 and in the Championship Game for the 2^nd straight year.

Wins: Charleston Southern, Temple, @Northern Illinois, Kent State, @Buffalo, Ball State, Ohio – Losses: Vanderbilt, @Michigan, @Cincinnati, @Bowling Green, @Toledo

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2) Bowling Green Falcons (6-6, 6-2)

Another case of all offense, no defense in the MAC. QB Tyler Sheehan is built in the mode of CMU’s Dan LeFevour and could put up a ton of points. The only problem is that the O-Line and RBs are quite weak. 9 starters return on defense. Unfortunately, this is a defense that gave up 200+ rushing yds/gm last season. If they can shore up those holes, they should contend for a division title.

Worst-case scenario – Bowling Green does not have a difficult conference schedule (they draw both Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois) but if they aren’t careful they could drop a couple of road games and go 5-7.

Best-case scenario – An upset of Wyoming or Minnesota could lead into a 7-1 conference schedule for an 8-win season and their first trip to the Championship Game since 2003.

Predictions – The Falcons can take one game from Toledo or Miami, but no wins outside of the conference and a bad loss will lead to a .500 finish.

Wins: Eastern Michigan, Miami, @Northern Illinois, Kent State, @Ohio, Buffalo – Losses: @Pittsburgh, Minnesota, @Boise State, @Wyoming, @Akron, @Toledo

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3) Temple Owls (6-6, 5-3)

Temple has been a laughingstock ever since they joined the Big East Conference in 1991. They got the boot from the Big East in 2004, but 2008 could see their first .500+ season since 1990. They return all 11 starters plus a lot of depth to the MAC’s best defense. An improved offensive line and running game should help the nation’s worst offense improve on its anemic 19 pts/gm in 2007.

Worst-case scenario – If the offense doesn’t improve it could be a very long 3-9 season.

Best-case scenario – A road upset against Miami or CMU could lead to 7 wins.

Predictions – Army should be a victory and if they can pick up a road win, they’ll make .500.

Wins: @Army, Western Michigan, Ohio, @Kent State, Eastern Michigan, Akron – Losses: Connecticut, @Buffalo, @Penn State, @Miami, @Central Michigan, @Navy

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4) Buffalo Bulls (5-7, 4-4)

Buffalo could have their first taste of success since moving to Div. 1-A in 1999. Talented QB Drew Willy is, hopefully, going to be leading that charge. They return 8 starters from a questionable defense but will rely on at least two freshman LBs. The defense is small and not particularly fast, so they must be able to overcome their size in order to hit .500.

Worst-case scenario – Losses to Army and @Akron could drop them to 3-9.

Best-case scenario – An upset of UTEP is possible and, combined with a home win against Miami could lead to their first winning season ever.

Predictions – Buffalo is still a year away from true competitiveness in the MAC.

Wins: Temple, Western Michigan, Army, @Akron, Kent State – Losses: UTEP, @Pittsburgh, @Missouri, @Central Michigan, @Ohio, Miami, @Bowling Green

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5) Akron Zips (4-8, 3-5)

This is a year of transition for Akron. Their starting RB from 2007 has moved to the secondary and their starting FS is now a WR. But this is a symptom of widespread depth problems for the Zips. The O-Line is their only solid position while the secondary is by far the weakest. Quarterback consistency will also be an issue in 2008.

Worst-case scenario – If the position changes don’t work and injuries become an issue the Zips could drop to 1-11.

Best-case scenario – They may be able to pick up one more MAC game to go 5-11.

Predictions – An up and down year should net them four wins.

Wins: Ball State, @Army, @Kent State, Bowling Green – Losses: @Wisconsin, @Syracuse, Cincinnati, @Eastern Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo, @Ohio, @Temple

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6) Kent State Golden Flashes (4-8, 2-6)

RB Eugene Jarvis will make Kent games entertaining to watch, but there is little else about this team that suggests success. They have decent pass-rushers and linebackers but that won’t be enough to keep them in games.

Worst-case scenario – Delaware State is a given but 2-10 is possible.

Best-case scenario – They just don’t have the talent to best 5-7.

Predictions – They should be able to grab two non-conference wins and four total is reasonable.

Wins: Delaware State, @UL-Lafayette, Ohio, Northern Illinois – Losses: Boston College, @Iowa State, @Ball State, Akron, @Miami, @Bowling Green, Temple, @Buffalo

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7) Ohio Bobcats (3-9, 2-6)

The Ohio team isn’t terrible. It’s not. They have a balanced defense, but it was still pretty bad last season and must be better in 2008. The fact that they lack a #1 RB will put all of the pressure on the passing offense which will have to step up if they want to win more than three games.

Worst-case scenario – VMI will be a victory so 2-10 is as bad as it will get.

Best-case scenario – 4-8. They have a tough draw.

Predictions – They draw CMU and WMU from the West and have to go away for Miami and Temple. It will be a tough road for the Bobcats.

Wins: VMI, Buffalo, Akron – Losses: @Wyoming, @Ohio State, Central Michigan, @Northwestern @Western Michigan, @Kent State, @Temple, Bowling Green, @Miami

This is the first in a 12-part series previewing the upcoming college football season. I’m hoping to have this finished by opening day, but it’s probably not going to happen.

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Day One: Sun Belt Conference

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I know exactly two things about the Sun Belt. One: Troy was great last season and should have made a bowl game. Two: FAU is better this season and could actually become the league’s first nine game winner. With that said: I am about to make some completely irresponsible predictions based largely on supposition and guesswork.

Teams are listed in expected order of finish:

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1) Florida Atlantic Owls (8-4, 6-1)

I know it’s the trendy pick, but it’s the right pick. They return 18 starters from a conference championship team that went 8-5. They have seven first-team all-conference selections, including what will likely be the conference Players of the Year in QB Rusty Smith and DB Corey Small. But, they didn’t perform all that well outside of their conference last year (2-3) and could struggle in that regard again this year. Texas and Michigan State will almost certainly result in losses while Minnesota—a 1-11 team that FAU beat by a FG last year—will likely be improved as well. On the other hand games against UAB and Western Kentucky should be victories for the Owls.

On the conference side of things, anything other than a perfect record would have to be considered a disappointment. No team in this league will be able to compete with them as Troy did last year. In fact, it’s very possible that no team in this league will even finish above .500. A return trip to New Orleans is definitely in the cards for FAU.

Worst case scenario – The worst case would involve two conference losses (likely to Troy or Arkansas State) and losses to UAB and Minnesota, leaving them 5-2 in the conference and 6-6 overall.

Best case scenario – The best case is an undefeated conference schedule with wins against UAB, Minnesota, and Western Kentucky, leaving them 10-2 and clawing toward the top 25.

Predictions – As Todd at RollBamaRoll is constantly reminding his readers, the truth usually lies somewhere in between the best and worst and that is certainly the case for FAU. A win against Minnesota is probably not going to happen and they’re likely to stumble along the way against one of their conference foes.

Wins: UAB, MTSU, Troy, WKU, LA-Monroe, N. TX, UL-Laf, FIU – Losses: TX, Mich. St, Minn., Ark. St.

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2) Troy Trojans (7-5, 5-2)

Everyone seems to be down on the Trojans this year, but with good reason. An 8-4 team last season with a marquee win against Oklahoma State, Troy lost its Quarterback, best defensive player, and Offensive Coordinator in the offseason. Fortunately, they return the conference’s best O-Line and what will hopefully be a vastly improved defense. Unfortunately, their non-conference schedule does not appear to be any easier than last year’s (2-3). Losses against Ohio State and LSU are givens and it is highly unlikely that they will be able to repeat their performance against the Cowboys again.

Troy’s success (or failure) will largely depend on whether they can win their conference games. They finished 6-1 last season, but that one loss cost them the championship and a spot in a bowl game. This year they have to face FAU on the road and will have increased competition from Arkansas State and UL-Monroe. 6-1 in house would make for a great season, but if the defense can’t hold up or their offense struggles under a new QB, they could be in trouble.

Worst-case scenario – A 2-3 non-conference schedule combines with four league losses to give the Trojans their first losing season since 2005.

Best-case scenario – A repeat of last year’s Oklahoma State game leads into a 5-1 conference record, 8 total wins, and a shot at a bowl game.

Predictions – I think Troy has the chops to beat everyone in the Sun Belt except FAU. 2-3 outside of that is as good as it will get, though.

Wins: MTSU, Alcorn St., FIU, N. TX, WKU, UL-Laf, Ark. St. – Losses: LSU, OH St., OK St., FAU, UL-Monroe

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I would love to say with some certainty exactly what will happen with the rest of these Sun Belt teams, but the fact is that, outside of the top team (FAU) and the bottom team (FIU), the rest is kind of a crapshoot.

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3) Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6, 5-2)

The offense should be better and the defense should be worse. Their starting QB Corey Leonard and all-conference RB Reggie Arnold both return, but they’ve lost all four starting DBs. That is the extent of my knowledge of Arkansas State

Worst-case scenario – The defense completely falls apart and Corey Leonard doesn’t live up to the promise. 1 non-conference win is a given, but after that there are no gimmes. 3-9.

Best-case scenario – The defense retools and the offense stays balanced and plays well. An upset of Memphis is not completely unthinkable, nor would be wins against either FAU or Troy. 7-5.

Predictions – An upset of FAU is the biggest win of the season, but the Red Wolves are kept from their second conference title thanks to a loss at Troy on the last weekend of the season.

Wins: TX Southern, MTSU, UL-Monroe, FIU, FAU, N. TX – Losses: TAMU, So. Miss, Memphis, UL-Laf, Bama, Troy

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4) Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-7, 4-3)

UL-Monroe capped their best season in more than ten years with a huge 21-14 upset of Alabama. They return 19 starters from that season and could compete for the conference championship. They are relying on some JUCO transfers to fill the holes in the O-line and need to find some depth in the secondary but, like I said, this conference is up for grabs, so look for these guys to do some damage.

Worst-case scenario – They have two easy wins and I don’t see them winning any fewer than 3. 3-9.

Best-case scenario – They recover their magic from last year and pull off another SEC upset against Ole Miss or Arkansas. Unfortunately, it’s going to take a 6-1 record to win this conference and I don’t think the Warhawks can do it. 7-5.

Predictions – They beat the teams they should beat, lose to the teams they should lose to and pick up a couple of toss-ups; the makings of perfectly mediocre season.

Wins: AL A&M, UL-Laf, N. TX, Troy, FIU – Losses: Auburn, Arkansas, Tulane, Ark. St., FAU, MTSU, Ole Miss

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5) Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (4-8, 4-3)

Last season they were bad, this year they should be slightly less bad. One of the best running games in the country is offset by one of the worst defenses. They allowed almost 36 points per game last season and, if they do so again, will struggle to win four games.

Worst-case scenario – Only one game on this schedule is a should win. An 0-5 non-conference slate could couple with a 1-6 conference schedule to wind up at 1-11.

Best-case scenario – They luck into a win against Kent State or UTEP and grab five conference games for a 6-6 season.

Predictions – Again, they’ll beat the team they should beat (FIU), go 0-5 outside of the conference and pick up a couple of conference games.

Wins: N. TX, FIU, Ark. St., MTSU – Losses: So. Miss, IL, Kent St., KS St., UL-Monroe, UTEP, FAU, Troy

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6) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (4-8, 3-4)

Sophomore Quarterback Dwight Dasher was okay last season, racking up 1,000 yds passing and 500 yds rushing for a traditionally anemic offense. Let’s just say that I know nothing about this team and move on.

Worst-case scenario – FIU and Western Kentucky should be wins, but nothing else will be easy. 2-10.

Best-case scenario – There aren’t really any non-conference upsets here, but if they could win 4 conference games prior to their final week showdown with Lafayette, they could be scraping .500.

Predictions – There is really not much here to work with. Expect them to beat FIU and WKU, lose their other non-conference games and beat a couple other conference foes.

Wins: FIU, UL-M, WKU, N. TX – Losses: Troy, MD, KY, Ark. St., FAU, Louisville, MS St., UL-L

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7) North Texas Mean Green (2-10, 1-6)

These guys were awful last year and I don’t see any reason for them to have improved. They have one good player (WR Casey Fitzgerald) and a defense that gave up 45 points per game. It’s going to be another long season.

Worst-case scenario – They lose to either FIU or WKU and wind up 1-11.

Best-case scenario – They pull off one more conference game to get up to 3-9.

Predictions – FIU and WKU. That’s it. And those will probably be close.

Wins: FIU, WKU – Losses: KS St., Tulsa, LSU, Rice, UL-L, UL-M, Troy, FAU, MTSU, Ark. St.

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8 ) Florida International Panthers (1-11, 0-7)

I said North Texas was bad. These guys are worse. Last year’s offense was dead last and the defense gave up 30+ points 7 times and 50+ points 4 times. On top of that, there is absolutely no reason to think they will be any better this year.

Worst-case scenario – They lose the last week’s battle with the other worst team in college football, WKU, and finish their second winless season in three years.

Best-case scenario – They pluck an upset (North Texas and MTSU are the likely foes) and double their win total to two.

Predictions – FIU will be 0-11 going in to the last week of the season against 1-10 Western Kentucky. FIU wins, somehow.

Wins: WKU – Losses: Kansas, Iowa, USF, Toledo, N. TX, MTSU, Troy, UL-L, Ark. St., FAU, UL-M

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Thursday: MAC

Friday: Conference USA

Saturday: MWC

Sunday: WAC